人民币国际化的国家异质性分析与人民币国际化进程

发布时间：2018-03-18 02:08

本文选题：人民币国际化　切入点：异质性　出处：《世界经济研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章利用面板数据从国家异质性的角度,分析美、日两国货币国际化成败的内在原因,并通过扣除本地需求法测算出2003~2016年人民币境外存量的走势,利用脉冲响应函数研究推动人民币国际化进程的潜在因素。基本结论是:(1)日元国际化失败是因为日元并未在国际市场中发挥完全意义上的国际货币职能,仅充当"载体货币"用于国际金融市场套利交易;(2)人民币境外存量已下跌至2009年金融危机后水平,经济"新常态"下人民币国际化进程严重受阻;(3)贸易规模的提升对人民币国际化仅存在短期促进作用,资本市场的过热将会对人民币国际地位产生负向作用,人民币币值的下降则会对人民币国际化进程产生长期的抑制效应。因此在当前经济形势下,人民币国际化战略应谨慎地稳步推行。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of national heterogeneity, this paper analyzes the internal reasons for the success or failure of currency internationalization in the United States and Japan, and calculates the trend of RMB offshore stock from 2003 to 2016 by deducting the local demand method. The basic conclusion is that the failure of yen internationalization is due to the fact that the yen does not play a full role as an international currency in the international market. Used only as a "carrier currency" for arbitrage trading in international financial markets.) the offshore stock of RMB has fallen to its level after the financial crisis in 2009. Under the "New normal" of the economy, the process of RMB internationalization has been seriously hindered. (3) the promotion of the scale of trade has only a short-term effect on the internationalization of the RMB, and the overheating of the capital market will have a negative effect on the international status of the RMB. A decline in the value of the renminbi will have a long-term inhibitory effect on the process of internationalization of the renminbi. Therefore, in the current economic situation, the strategy of internationalization of the RMB should be carried out cautiously and steadily.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“一带一路相关国家贸易竞争与互补关系研究”(项目批准号:16ZDA039)的阶段性成果;国家社会科学基金一般项目“服务业总体规模、结构演进的历史趋势和内在机理研究”(项目批准号:11BJL064)的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6

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