中国应建立并完善宏观审慎监管体系应对潜在金融风险

发布时间：2018-03-30 03:20

本文选题：卢布汇率　切入点：资本项目　出处：《欧亚经济》2016年01期

【摘要】：2014年以来,卢布汇率大幅贬值和剧烈波动引起国际社会广泛关注。资本外逃、通货膨胀、外汇储备下降,俄罗斯经济面临严峻考验。深刻分析卢布贬值的原因:欧美制裁和油价下跌是导火索,经济增长乏力、结构畸形是根本点,开放资本项目是助推器。关联储退出量化宽松政策,美元加息预期不断增强,特别是中国大幅下调人民币中间价后,新兴市场国家和与中国有密切贸易关系的国家货币争先恐后贬值,在经济全球化的今天,发展中国家选择何种汇率制度、资本项目的开放程度等又成为当前研讨的热点问题。中国"十三五"规划建议指出,有序实现人民币资本项目可自由兑换,推动人民币进入特别提款权,成为可自由兑换、可自由使用货币,可见,人民币国际化进程已经开始提速。本刊编辑部特邀请国内专家学者参加讨论,剖析卢布贬值的深层原因,比较中俄两国在经济增长、产业结构、国际储备、本币国际化、汇率制度等方面的差异,评估卢布汇率危机对中国金融改革总体进程的影响,探讨中国如何在逐步推进汇率形成机制市场化的同时,有效防范汇率大幅波动产生的风险。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the ruble devaluation and volatility caused widespread concern in the international community. The flight of capital, inflation, foreign exchange reserves decline, the Russian economy is facing a severe test. The profound reason analysis of devaluation of the ruble: European and American sanctions and the drop in oil prices is the fuse, weak economic growth, structural deformity is the fundamental point, opening the capital account is associated storage booster. Exit quantitative easing, the dollar rate hike is expected to continue to strengthen, especially China slashed the central parity of RMB, emerging market countries have close trade relations with Chinese and national currency devaluation fall over each other, in the economic globalization, developing countries in the choice of exchange rate regime, capital account openness has become a hot topic of current research. Chinese "13th Five-Year" planning proposal pointed out that the orderly realization of the RMB capital account can freely exchange, promote the RMB In the SDR, become freely convertible and freely usable currency, visible, has begun to accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB. Editorial Department invited domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion, analyzes the deep reason for the devaluation of the ruble, comparison between China and Russia in the economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, currency internationalization, differences of exchange rate system. The impact assessment of the ruble exchange rate crisis on the overall process of Chinese financial reform, explore how to China in gradually promote market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism at the same time, to effectively prevent the risk of exchange rate volatility.

【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室;
【分类号】：F832.1;F835.12

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