政府债务、期限溢价与货币政策选择

发布时间：2018-03-30 07:02

本文选题：政府债务　切入点：期限溢价　出处：《财经研究》2017年11期

【摘要】：近年来,中国政府债务迅速扩张,由此产生的影响和风险引起政府部门和学术界的广泛关注。政府债务多以长期债券形式存在,其扩张必然会对长期债券市场造成较大冲击,进而影响期限溢价。文章以期限溢价为切入点,构建DSGE模型研究了政府债务扩张对宏观经济运行的影响及机制。数值模拟结果表明,政府债务扩张导致期限溢价上升,长期利率上行,社会融资成本上升,投资活动被挤出,产出减少。文章进一步研究了政府债务扩张下的货币政策选择问题,发现盯住期限溢价的货币政策可以减少政府债务扩张所导致的扭曲,提高社会福利。文章的研究为理解政府债务问题提供了一个新的视角,也为政府减少其债务扩张所导致的扭曲提供了一种可行的方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's government debt has expanded rapidly, which has caused widespread concern by government departments and academic circles. Most of the government debt exists in the form of long-term bonds, and its expansion will inevitably have a great impact on the long-term bond market. Based on term premium, this paper constructs DSGE model to study the influence and mechanism of government debt expansion on macroeconomic operation. The numerical simulation results show that government debt expansion leads to an increase in term premium. The long-term interest rate goes up, the social financing cost rises, the investment activity is squeezed out, and the output is reduced. It is found that monetary policy with fixed term premium can reduce the distortion caused by the expansion of government debt and improve social welfare. It also provides a viable way for the government to reduce the distortions caused by its debt expansion.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学经济学院;中泰证券研究所;
【分类号】：F812.5;F822.0

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