信贷供给周期影响公司外部融资的效果和机制

发布时间：2018-03-31 08:28

本文选题：信贷供给周期　切入点：债务融资　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：公司在经营和发展过程中,需要进行资金筹募来满足自身持续经营和业务拓展的需要,融资决策对于公司而言至关重要,也是公司金融领域的研究热点。在学术层面,近年来,越来越多的研究关注到宏观经济波动和经济政策与微观经济主体行为之间的联系,其中信贷市场被认为是宏观层面向微观层面传导的重要途径,不从信贷供给如何作用于公司微观行为入手,很难对其传导渠道形成深入理解。在现实层面,全球性金融形势的日益严峻导致金融波动频发,信贷市场波动对实体经济活动的影响不断,政府和央行也不断通过信贷政策和信贷工具的运用调控信贷投放的速度和强度。在此背景下,研究信贷供给周期对公司外部融资的影响效果和机制,具有重要意义。本文主要研究中国信贷供给周期对公司债务融资和股权融资的影响,并将公司资产负债表的变化和管理者信心程度的变化纳入分析框架,着重探究了其在信贷供给影响中的微观作用机制。在进行理论分析并提出假说后,通过选取2003年第一季度至2015年第四季度期间的中国宏观信贷指标和企业家信心指标,以及中国A股上市公司的季度财务数据进行实证分析,本文得出以下结论:信贷供给周期的变化,包括信贷增长速度、信贷增长力度和信贷能力变动对公司的债务融资和股权融资具有显著影响,信贷供给扩张时公司将增加债务融资,减少股权融资,反之亦然;在信贷供给周期影响公司外部融资的过程中,可抵押资产增加将放大信贷供给波动对债务融资和股权融资的影响;现金流增加将削弱信贷供给波动对债务融资的冲击,但在股权融资方面无显著作用;管理者信心程度增强也将同时放大宏观信贷对公司债务融资和股权融资的影响。本文的研究结论对公司融资决策和政府信贷调控起到一定的参考作用。公司融资行为应重视信贷供给周期变化的影响,通过调整公司财务特征、调节管理者心态去应对宏观信贷波动冲击;政府要加强对信贷异常波动情况的监控,防止信贷冲击通过公司融资对实体经济产生的不利影响,中央银行在运用信贷政策和工具进行调控时,应考虑到宏观信贷与实体经济相关联的视角。
[Abstract]:In the process of operation and development, the company needs to raise funds to meet the needs of its continuing operation and business expansion. Financing decision is very important for the company, and it is also a hot research topic in the field of corporate finance.At the academic level, in recent years, more and more researches have focused on the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and the behavior of microeconomic subjects, in which the credit market is considered to be an important way to transmit from the macro to the micro level.It is difficult to understand how the credit supply acts on the microcosmic behavior of the company.In reality, the increasingly severe global financial situation leads to frequent financial fluctuations, and the impact of credit market volatility on real economic activities is constant.The government and the central bank also constantly regulate the speed and intensity of credit delivery through credit policy and the use of credit instruments.Under this background, it is of great significance to study the effect and mechanism of credit supply cycle on external financing.This paper mainly studies the impact of Chinese credit supply cycle on corporate debt financing and equity financing, and brings the changes of balance sheet and confidence of managers into the analytical framework.This paper probes into its micro-mechanism in the influence of credit supply.After theoretical analysis and hypothesis, the empirical analysis is carried out by selecting the macro credit index and entrepreneur confidence index from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2015, as well as the quarterly financial data of Chinese A-share listed companies.This paper draws the following conclusions: the changes of credit supply cycle, including the rate of credit growth, the intensity of credit growth and the change of credit ability, have a significant impact on debt financing and equity financing.When credit supply expands, companies will increase debt financing, reduce equity financing, and vice versa; in the course of the credit supply cycle affecting the external financing of the company,The increase of mortgage assets will amplify the impact of credit supply fluctuations on debt financing and equity financing, while the increase of cash flow will weaken the impact of credit supply fluctuations on debt financing, but it will not play a significant role in equity financing.Increased confidence in managers will also amplify the impact of macro-credit on corporate debt and equity financing.The conclusion of this paper plays a certain reference role in corporate financing decision and government credit regulation.The corporate financing behavior should pay attention to the influence of the credit supply cycle change, adjust the financial characteristics of the company, adjust the manager's mentality to deal with the macro credit fluctuation shock, the government should strengthen the monitoring of the abnormal credit fluctuation situation.To prevent the negative impact of credit shock on the real economy through corporate financing, the central bank should take into account the angle of view of the correlation between macro credit and real economy when applying credit policies and instruments to regulate and control the real economy.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4

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