不同行业估值模型的适用性分析

发布时间：2018-03-31 09:44

本文选题：行业特征　切入点：估值方法　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国社会主义市场经济体系的不断完善以及资本市场的快速发展,我国上市公司的数量不断增加,机构投资者以及散户股民队伍也不断壮大,因此,对投资者而言,树立价值投资理念,更为准确地估计上市公司价值显得尤为重要。而价值评估的方法多种多样,如何选取更适合该行业的估值方法十分重要。为更好地解决这一问题,本文将不同估值模型对行业上市公司的估值适用性作为研究主题,并从理论分析角度对不同估值模型对不同行业的适用性进行了研究,并且从理论和实证的角度具体分析了房地产行业的估值模型的适用性。从理论上分析,我们将行业通过生命周期和周期性进行区分,处于幼稚期、成长期、成熟期和衰老期的行业以及周期强和周期性弱的行业有着不同的特征,根据这种特征划分,理论层面上分析了各种估值模型的不同行业适用性,较为全面地总结了不同估值方法的行业适用性。DCF估值法和DDM估值法比较适合周期性较弱的行业以及处于成熟期的行业,期权定价法较为适合高新产业行业,相对估值法适合成长期以及周期性较强的行业。并且对房地产行业的估值方法从理论角度进行了具体分析。从实证分析而言,我们通过选取房地产行业的3家代表性企业万科A、绿地控股和保利地产,通过对比DDM估值法、DCF估值法、市盈率估值法和市净率估值法4种估值方法的估计结果,对比3家上市公司的真实市场价格,我们发现分析结果基本与我们的理论分析预测相一致,即房地产行业上属于处于成长期并且是属于周期性较强的行业,相对估值法比绝对估值法更为适用于房地产行业。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the socialist market economy system and the rapid development of the capital market, the number of listed companies in China is increasing, and the ranks of institutional investors and retail investors are also growing. It is very important to set up the idea of value investment and estimate the value of listed company more accurately. However, there are many methods of value evaluation, so it is very important to select the valuation method that is more suitable for this industry. In this paper, the applicability of different valuation models to industry listed companies is taken as the research topic, and the applicability of different valuation models to different industries is studied from the perspective of theoretical analysis. And from the perspective of theory and empirical analysis of the applicability of the valuation model of the real estate industry. Theoretically, we distinguish the industry through life cycle and periodicity, in infancy, growth period, There are different characteristics between mature and aging industries, and industries with strong cycles and weak periodicity. According to this characteristic, the applicability of various valuation models is analyzed theoretically. This paper summarizes the applicability of different valuation methods. DCF valuation method and DDM valuation method are more suitable for industries with weak periodicity and mature period, and option pricing method is more suitable for high-tech industries. The relative valuation method is suitable for the growth period and the industry with strong periodicity. And the valuation method of the real estate industry is analyzed concretely from the theoretical point of view. By selecting Vanke, Green holding and Poly Real Estate, three representative enterprises in the real estate industry, we compare the estimated results of four valuation methods, namely, DDM valuation method, price-to-earnings ratio valuation method and price-to-book ratio valuation method. Comparing the real market prices of the three listed companies, we find that the analysis results are basically consistent with our theoretical analysis and prediction, that is, the real estate industry belongs to the industry in the growth period and belongs to the industry with strong periodicity. The relative valuation method is more suitable for the real estate industry than the absolute valuation method.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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