我国OFDI风险的综合评价与实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 07:25

本文选题：对外直接投资　切入点：风险　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化日益深化的背景下,我国对其他国家的投资规模和频次均已大幅增加。然而,在此过程中,我国企业所面临的东道国风险也更加复杂。由于国内对东道国综合风险的研究不多,企业在对东道国投资之前,所面临的综合风险评估是一个难题。而本文综合了各个常用的分项风险,对各分项风险以及总体风险做了理论分析和综合的数据测算,具有一定的实践意义。本文首先介绍了对外直接投资的基本概念和基础理论,构建了一个开放经济下的克鲁格曼垄断竞争模型,通过比较企业预期效用与企业利润的关系,逐步推导出企业可能会对一国进行直接投资的条件。随后,本文从风险的构成要素、风险偏好以及投资动机三个层面展开,详细探讨了东道国风险影响我国企业对外直接投资的内在机理。本文综合各种文献,选出了起主导作用的几种风险影响因素。在风险偏好的层面,假设我国企业在对外直接投资时具有风险偏好特征,那么企业会倾向于对风险较高的国家投资。在投资动机上,我国企业在对外直接投资时,具有市场寻求、资源寻求以及技术寻求特征。在不同的投资动机下,东道国风险对我国企业OFDI的影响机制也有所不同。在风险测算方面,本文采用改进的主成分分析法(PCA),测算出所选样本的各项风险值。从各国的风险值可以得出,发展中国家的综合风险值在总体上比较高。而分析各国风险的波动可知,我国企业愿意对一国直接投资的条件与前文理论模型推导的一致。本文根据64个国家近10年的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,研究了东道国风险对我国OFDI的实证影响。结果表明,东道国的政治、经济、法律风险均对我国的对外直接投资有影响,我国企业的对外直接投资在各项风险上均不存在风险偏好的问题。在投资动机上,实证结果表明,我国企业的对外直接投资的确具有市场寻求、资源寻求以及技术寻求动机。而在加入风险与投资动机的交互项之后,风险对投资的影响也会被抑制或促进,这与理论分析结论是一致的。由于我国企业未来对“一带一路”沿线国家投资会越来越多,本文对“一带一路”国家的数据做了重点测算,并对其样本单独做了实证分析,实证结果与全样本基本一致。
[Abstract]:Under the background of deepening economic globalization, the scale and frequency of China's investment in other countries have increased significantly.However, in this process, the risk of the host country faced by Chinese enterprises is more complex.Because there is not much research on the comprehensive risk of the host country in our country, the comprehensive risk assessment that enterprises face before investing in the host country is a difficult problem.This paper synthesizes the common itemized risk, makes the theoretical analysis and the comprehensive data calculation to each itemized risk as well as the overall risk, which has certain practical significance.This paper first introduces the basic concepts and basic theories of FDI, constructs a Krugman monopoly competition model in an open economy, and compares the relationship between the expected utility of enterprises and the profits of enterprises.The conditions under which firms may invest directly in a country are gradually deduced.Then, this paper discusses the internal mechanism of the host country's risk influencing the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises in detail from three aspects: the constituent elements of risk, the risk preference and the investment motivation.In this paper, several risk factors which play a leading role are selected by synthesizing all kinds of literatures.In the aspect of risk preference, if Chinese enterprises have the characteristics of risk preference in OFDI, then enterprises tend to invest in countries with higher risk.In terms of investment motivation, Chinese enterprises have the characteristics of market seeking, resource seeking and technology seeking when they invest in foreign direct investment.Under different investment motives, the influence mechanism of host country risk on OFDI of Chinese enterprises is also different.In the aspect of risk measurement, this paper uses the improved principal component analysis method to calculate the risk values of the selected samples.From the risk value of each country, the overall risk value of developing countries is relatively high.By analyzing the fluctuation of risk in different countries, we can see that the conditions of Chinese enterprises willing to invest in a country are consistent with the theoretical model.Based on panel data from 64 countries in the past 10 years, this paper studies the empirical influence of host country risk on OFDI in China by using fixed effect model.The results show that the political, economic and legal risks of the host country have an impact on China's foreign direct investment, and there is no risk preference problem in the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises.In terms of investment motivation, the empirical results show that the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises does have the motivation of market seeking, resource seeking and technology seeking.After the interaction between risk and investment motivation, the influence of risk on investment will be restrained or promoted, which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis.As Chinese enterprises will invest more and more in the countries along Belt and Road in the future, this paper makes a key calculation of the data of the country along "Belt and Road", and makes an empirical analysis of the samples separately. The empirical results are basically consistent with those of the whole sample.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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