美元汇率的长期均衡与离岸人民币汇率管理

发布时间：2018-04-03 11:20

本文选题：贸易逆差　切入点：对外债务　出处：《新金融》2017年08期

【摘要】：美国对外债务与贸易逆差联动关系的分析表明,美国政府一直在根据贸易逆差主动调控对外债务尤其是政府部门对外债务,以维持国际金融市场美元流动性供给与需求的基本均衡,从而保持美元汇率的相对稳定。美国的经验说明主动调控对外债务尤其是政府部门对外债务是国际货币发行国稳定汇率最直接有效的措施。自2009年启动人民币国际化战略以来,人民币已经初步完成了由国别货币向国际货币的转型,对人民币汇率的管理不能再沿用在岸汇率管理模式。我们建议借鉴美国汇率管理的经验,根据离岸人民币供给主动调控离岸人民币债券,维持离岸市场人民币供给与需求的均衡,稳定人民币汇率。
[Abstract]:An analysis of the linkage between the US external debt and the trade deficit shows that the US government has been taking the initiative to regulate and control foreign debt, especially the external debt of government departments, according to the trade deficit.In order to maintain the basic balance between the supply and demand of US dollar liquidity in the international financial market, thus maintaining the relative stability of the US dollar exchange rate.The experience of the United States shows that active control of external debt, especially government external debt, is the most direct and effective measure to stabilize the exchange rate of international monetary issuers.Since the RMB internationalization strategy was launched in 2009, the RMB has initially completed the transformation from national currency to international currency, and the management of RMB exchange rate can no longer follow the management mode of onshore exchange rate.We suggest that we should draw lessons from the experience of U.S. exchange rate management, actively regulate offshore RMB bonds according to the supply of offshore RMB, maintain the balance between supply and demand of RMB in the offshore market, and stabilize the RMB exchange rate.
【作者单位】：广东金融学院华南创新金融研究院;广东金融学院国际金融研究中心;
【基金】：2017年广东省应用经济学省级重点学科资助项目
【分类号】：F832.6;F837.12

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