宏观流动性、资产价格波动与货币政策新框架选择——基于中国房地产市场的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-03 11:49

本文选题：流动性螺旋　切入点：资产价格波动　出处：《现代财经(天津财经大学学报)》2017年08期

【摘要】：本文通过构建资金循环流动理论模型,引入流动性螺旋机制,分析宏观流动性与资产价格波动之间的内在逻辑关系,并基于我国2009年四季度-2016年三季度房地产数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,宏观流动性变动对房地产价格具有很强的解释能力,房价产价格波动的实质是流动性结构失衡、流动性总量失控和市场情绪失度;研究结论进一步表明流动性螺旋机制影响了房地产市场。根据上述研究结论,对传统货币政策框架中的货币数量方程和菲利普斯曲线进行扩展,建立了货币政策理论新框架,探讨了宏观流动性、资产价格、实体经济之间的关系。新的理论框架表明,资产价格对产出确实有影响,具有明显的挤出效应,货币政策在关注实体经济稳定的同时应该关注资产价格的稳定。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the theoretical model of capital circulation flow is constructed, and the liquidity spiral mechanism is introduced to analyze the inherent logical relationship between macro liquidity and asset price fluctuation.And based on the real estate data from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2016, the empirical test is carried out.The results show that the macro-liquidity changes have a strong ability to explain the real estate prices, the essence of the price fluctuations is liquidity structure imbalance, the total amount of liquidity out of control and market sentiment loss;The conclusion further shows that the liquidity spiral mechanism affects the real estate market.Based on the above conclusions, this paper extends the monetary quantity equation and Phillips curve in the traditional monetary policy framework, establishes a new framework of monetary policy theory, and probes into the relationship among macro liquidity, asset price and real economy.The new theoretical framework shows that asset prices do have an impact on output and have an obvious crowding out effect. Monetary policy should pay attention to the stability of asset prices while paying attention to the stability of the real economy.
【作者单位】：南昌航空大学经管学院;江西财经大学金融发展与风险防范研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY203) 江西省高校人文重点项目(JD1560)
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

【参考文献】