尽快引入人民币兑篮子汇率宽幅区间波动

发布时间：2018-04-03 12:21

本文选题：贬值预期　切入点：外汇储备　出处：《国际经济评论》2016年01期

【摘要】：人民币贬值不可怕,给定中国情况尚好的外汇市场基本面,人民币不具备大幅贬值空间。持续的人民币贬值预期才是宏观经济稳定的最大敌人,贬值预期不仅催动资本外流,还会对投资者信心、国内资产价格和货币政策独立性带来严重打击。贬值预期拖得越久,问题越大,甚至会引发货币危机和金融危机。大量消耗外汇储备的市场干预和资本管制都不足以消除贬值预期,对人民币汇率形成机制的规则和透明度建设才是关键。我们比较了几种能够消除贬值预期的方案,最终建议尽快引入人民币兑篮子汇率的宽幅区间波动的新机制,新机制兼顾了浮动汇率和防止汇率超调。实施新机制需要必要的资本管制措施配合。
[Abstract]:The depreciation of the yuan is not scary, given the fundamentals of China's foreign exchange market, the yuan does not have much room to depreciate.The expectation of a sustained devaluation of the yuan is the biggest enemy of macroeconomic stability, which not only stimulates capital outflows, but also hits investor confidence, domestic asset prices and the independence of monetary policy.The longer depreciation expectations drag on, the greater the problem, even triggering currency and financial crises.Market intervention and capital controls, which consume a lot of foreign exchange reserves, are not enough to eliminate depreciation expectations. Rules and transparency of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism are the key.We compared several options that would eliminate depreciation expectations, and finally suggested introducing a new mechanism for broad band volatility of the renminbi against the basket as soon as possible, taking into account both floating exchange rates and preventing exchange rate overshoot.The implementation of the new mechanism requires necessary capital controls.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【分类号】：F832.6

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