汇率市场化对货币政策有效性与独立性的影响研究——基于NOEM—DSGE模型的模拟

发布时间：2018-04-05 21:33

本文选题：汇率市场化　切入点：数量型和价格型　出处：《国际贸易问题》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文构建新凯恩斯小型开放动态随机一般均衡模型,在统一框架下研究资本管制程度不同时汇改如何影响我国数量型和价格型货币政策的有效性和独立性。通过模拟分析发现:汇改能提升两类政策的有效性,同时又能增强价格型货币政策的独立性,但会降低数量型货币政策的独立性;资本高度流动和富有弹性的汇率制度搭配可以增强我国价格型货币政策的独立性,但不能增强数量型货币政策的独立性;协调推进汇率市场化和资本账户开放有助于提升我国货币政策的有效性和独立性。利用月度数据以及不同的货币政策规则方程分析结论仍然保持稳健性。结论显示随着汇改的持续推进,我国的货币政策要逐步过渡到以价格型为主,这样既能提升货币政策有效性又能增强货币政策独立性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a new Keynesian open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is constructed to study how different levels of capital control affect the effectiveness and independence of quantitative and price-oriented monetary policies in China under the unified framework.Through the simulation analysis, it is found that the exchange rate reform can enhance the effectiveness of the two types of policies, at the same time, it can enhance the independence of the price monetary policy, but will reduce the independence of the quantitative monetary policy;The combination of high mobility of capital and flexible exchange rate system can enhance the independence of China's price-based monetary policy, but it can not enhance the independence of quantitative monetary policy.Promoting the exchange rate marketization and capital account opening harmoniously helps to enhance the effectiveness and independence of China's monetary policy.Using monthly data and different monetary policy rule equations, the conclusions remain robust.The conclusion shows that with the continuous promotion of the exchange rate reform, China's monetary policy should gradually transition to a price-oriented one, which can not only enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy but also enhance the independence of monetary policy.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;安徽师范大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“外生突发性冲击对宏观经济运行的影响及对策研究”(71403247)
【分类号】：F832.6

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