英国和德国助推人民币国际化的动机分析

发布时间：2018-04-16 22:22

本文选题：人民国际化 + 双层博弈　；参考：《北京外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危机以来,中国一直致力于推进人民币国际化进程。根据苏珊·斯特兰奇提出的四种国际货币类型,人民币目前是一个协商货币,因此在对人民币国际化进程的研究中,对发行国和"追随国"以及它们之间的相互作用的政治分析尤其重要。然而,许多关于人民币的研究都是针对发行国家进行的,但是对为什么追随者支持人民币的研究相对较少,而且大多数只是简单地分析外国政府或个人使用者的经济考量。因此,本文引入国际货币理论和普特南的双层博弈理论,并采用英国和德国的案例来调查追随国家的动机和构成动机的深层原因。本文探讨第二层级行为者(国内利益集团)的动机时,发现英国的支持主要源于金融业希望将伦敦发展成人民币产品交易中心的愿景。而实体经济对人民币解决方案的需求构成了德国的首要动机。本文认为这种分歧是由利益和制度决定的,而制度——英国自由市场经济与德国的协调市场经济——之间的分歧是首要原因。然后,本文提出,第一层级行为者(首席谈判代表和国家领导)受到利益和观念的影响。对于英国来说,与中国达成的协议有助于促进与该国的商业关系,帮助英国从08年全球金融危机中恢复从而保障保守党的连任。对于德国来说,中国在欧元区危机期间的援助帮助了默克尔总理控制欧元贬值和推行救市计划,为其连任提供了支持。支持人民币可以说是德国的一种善意的回报。最后,通过采用诺洛夫三种权力的框架,本文发现,尽管中国在这两个国家辐射的影响力一直在加强,但是还没有达到可以使权力重心从美国向中国转移的程度,同时还没有迹象表明美国在这两个国家的影响力在大幅度的削减。这意味着人民币与美元相比仍然使用仍然是有限的。最后,本文探讨了两个层次的相对重要性,本文认为第二层级是主导力量,而第一层级起支持作用。然而,在某些情况下,第一层级会自主发起协议来向支持的联盟提供公共物品。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China has been committed to promoting the internationalization of the yuan.According to the four types of international currencies proposed by Susan Strange, the RMB is currently a negotiated currency, so in the study of the process of RMB internationalization,Political analysis of issuers and "followers" and their interactions is particularly important.However, much of the research on renminbi is directed at the issuing countries, but there is relatively little research on why followers support the currency, and most simply analyse the economic considerations of foreign governments or individual users.Therefore, this paper introduces the international monetary theory and Putnam's two-level game theory, and uses the cases of Britain and Germany to investigate the underlying reasons of the motive of following the country and the motivation of the formation of the motive.This paper explores the motivations of second-tier actors (domestic interest groups) and finds that British support stems largely from the financial sector's vision of turning London into a trading centre for renminbi products.And demand for a yuan solution in the real economy is Germany's primary motivation.This paper argues that this divergence is determined by interest and institution, and that the difference between the British free market economy and the coordinated market economy in Germany is the primary reason.Then, it is suggested that the first level actors (chief negotiator and state leader) are influenced by interests and ideas.For Britain, the deal with China will help boost business relations with the country and help it recover from the 2008 global financial crisis to secure a Conservative term.For Germany, China's aid during the euro zone crisis helped Chancellor Merkel control the depreciation of the euro and push through the rescue plan, supporting her re-election.Supporting the yuan is arguably a well-meaning reward for Germany.Finally, by adopting the framework of the three powers of Norlov, this paper finds that although China's radiative influence in these two countries has been increasing, it has not yet reached the point where the focus of power can be transferred from the United States to China.At the same time, there is no sign that America's influence in these two countries has been greatly reduced.This means that the use of the yuan against the dollar is still limited.Finally, this paper discusses the relative importance of the two levels. The second level is the leading force, and the first level plays a supporting role.In some cases, however, the first level initiates a protocol to provide public goods to the supporting alliance.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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