国内总储蓄率高企及居民消费率下降的分解与探究

发布时间：2018-04-21 18:29

本文选题：储蓄率 + 资金流量表　；参考：《社会科学研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：从经济体各部门的视角对1998-2013年资金流量表进行逐项分解发现,国内高企的总储蓄率主要来自政府和企业部门的贡献,居民部门的储蓄率反有所减少。政府储蓄率增加是储蓄倾向和收入占比双双上升的结果,其储蓄倾向的上升主要受资本形成影响;企业储蓄率的增加反映出收入占比上升,且是因增加值占比上升所致;居民储蓄率减少,主要受收入占比下滑影响,收入占比下滑则源于增加值占比减少,储蓄倾向有所上升,反映出居民受住房价格上涨影响,为买房而积累储蓄的动因,最终导致居民消费率不断下降。对此,传统消费理论缺乏足够的说服力,政府和市场因素的解释或更贴近现实。政策应切实解决二元经济结构下劳动力市场、金融市场和房地产市场的扭曲与政府行为的错位问题。
[Abstract]:A itemized analysis of the 1998-2013 capital flow statement from the perspective of various sectors of the economy shows that the high domestic total savings rate comes mainly from the contribution of the government and the corporate sector, while the savings rate of the resident sector decreases. The increase of government savings rate is the result of both the increase of saving tendency and the proportion of income, the increase of saving tendency is mainly influenced by the formation of capital, and the increase of enterprise savings rate reflects the increase of income ratio and the increase of value added ratio. The decline in the household savings rate is mainly affected by the decline in the share of income, which is due to a decrease in the proportion of added value and an increase in the propensity to save, which reflects the motivation for residents to accumulate savings in order to buy a house under the influence of rising housing prices. Ultimately, the consumption rate of the residents continues to decline. In view of this, the traditional consumption theory lacks sufficient persuasion, and the explanation of government and market factors may be closer to reality. The policy should solve the distortion of labor market, financial market and real estate market and the dislocation of government behavior under the dual economic structure.
【作者单位】：国家发展和改革委员会投资研究所;
【分类号】：F126.1;F832.22

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