中国影子银行对金融稳定影响的研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 07:32

本文选题：影子银行 + 货币政策　；参考：《华侨大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经过这些年的迅猛成长,影子银行早已更改了环球的金融结构。虽然国内的影子银行此刻还处于初始成长阶段,但是已壮大成我国金融系统中的重要构成元素。另外,虽然我国影子银行的形式相对发达国家比较简单,但是发展方式也不如发达国家规范,所以依然蕴藏着较大的风险。近些年来,关于我国影子银行作用于金融稳定的效用的讨论也逐渐增多。为了研究国内影子银行作用于金融稳定的效果,本文既使用理论分析,也有实证研究,二者相辅相成,使得论证比较有理有据,还以相关的统计数据、图表佐证本文的观点。首先,本文根据我国影子银行的特点,并结合相关研究的代表性文献,界定了影子银行并阐述其作用机理;随后,根据设定的指标,选取2002年到2015年间的相关数据,通过建立货币政策SVAR模型,探讨了影子银行作用于货币政策的效用;最后,通过建立GARCH—偏t分布—VaR模型,将2007年到2016年的有关数据代入该模型,探讨了影子银行作用于我国金融稳定性的效用。实证分析结果显示,国内影子银行的扩张提升了公开市场操作的有效性,使得以货币供应量为监测中介的货币政策难以达到预期调控范围;此外,国内影子银行的风险较高,其中证券类影子银行的VaR最高,信托类影子银行次之,民间借贷类影子银行最小。根据实证结果,本文指出监管部门应该对影子银行的发展持审慎态度,既不能任由影子银行野蛮式地发展,也不能一味地限制其扩张;应该将影子银行的监控管理和国内的金融制度完善结合在一起。
[Abstract]:After years of rapid growth, shadow banking has changed the global financial structure. Although the shadow banking in China is still in its initial stage of growth, it has become an important element in the financial system of our country. In addition, although the form of shadow banking in our country is relatively simple compared with the developed countries, the mode of development is not as good as that of the developed countries, so it still contains great risks. In recent years, the discussion on the role of shadow banking in financial stability has increased. In order to study the effect of domestic shadow banking on financial stability, both theoretical analysis and empirical research are used in this paper. Firstly, according to the characteristics of shadow banking in China and the representative literature of relevant research, this paper defines shadow banking and explains its mechanism. Then, according to the established indicators, the paper selects the relevant data from 2002 to 2015. Through the establishment of monetary policy SVAR model, this paper discusses the effect of shadow banking on monetary policy, and finally, through the establishment of GARCH-partial t distribution-VaR model, the relevant data from 2007 to 2016 are added to the model. This paper discusses the effect of shadow banking on financial stability in China. The results of empirical analysis show that the expansion of domestic shadow banks enhances the effectiveness of open market operations, and makes it difficult for monetary policy with money supply as the monitoring intermediary to achieve the expected regulatory scope. In addition, the risks of domestic shadow banks are relatively high. Among them, the VaR of securities shadow bank is the highest, trust shadow bank is the second, and folk loan shadow bank is the smallest. According to the empirical results, this paper points out that the regulatory authorities should take a prudent attitude towards the development of shadow banking, neither allow shadow banking to develop savagely, nor blindly limit its expansion; Shadow banking supervision and management should be combined with the improvement of domestic financial system.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.3

【参考文献】