人民币汇率双边波动的形成机制与国际化进程

发布时间：2018-04-22 08:15

本文选题：汇率形成机制 + 双边波动　；参考：《山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：人民币国际化进程不断推进过程中,市场变动日趋复杂,并呈现有升有降的双边波动态势,汇率形成机制不再是单一的线性关系,而是出现了区制转变。通过中美经济因素对汇率水平影响路径的区制转移实证检验表明,在中美利率不同区制下,GDP、货币供给和利率对汇率形成的影响路径是相异的。这解释了2016年下半年期间人民币兑美元汇率走势持续走低的现象,虽然中国GDP持续增长,但是在美国加息增强影响下,两国利差缩小的情况下同样会出现汇率下滑。因此,对于外汇市场的干预和调控需采用离散的有管理浮动汇率制度,在同一区制内对国际收支细项进行频繁窄幅调整,而在不同区制需采用离散的跨区间方向性调整。
[Abstract]:In the process of RMB internationalization, the market changes are becoming more and more complicated, and the exchange rate formation mechanism is no longer a single linear relationship, but a regional system change. The empirical test of the regional transfer of the influence of the economic factors of China and the United States on the exchange rate level shows that under the different interest rate regions of China and the United States, the influence of money supply and interest rate on the formation of exchange rate is different. That explains why the yuan continued to weaken against the dollar in the second half of 2016. While China's GDP continues to grow, so will the narrowing of interest rate differentials between the two countries as a result of a stronger U.S. interest rate rise. Therefore, the intervention and regulation of the foreign exchange market should adopt the discrete managed floating exchange rate system, and make frequent and narrow adjustment of the international balance of payments in the same regional system, while the discrete cross-interval directional adjustment should be adopted in different regions.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“人民币双边波动新常态下货币政策与汇率政策的冲突与协调研究”(15BJY156) 教育部人文社会科学基金“金融业双向开放推动下中国外汇市场压力的聚集与释放及风险预警研究”(16YJA790023) 吉林大学哲学社会科学青年学术领袖培育计划“开放型经济新体制于人民币国际化研究”(2015FRLX16)
【分类号】：F832.6

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