人民币汇率造成美中贸易逆差的两个悖论简析

发布时间：2018-04-30 05:19

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 美中贸易逆差　；参考：《理论月刊》2017年11期

【摘要】：人民币汇率是否是造成美中贸易逆差的真实原因?文章提出了两个悖论:其一,如果人民币汇率低估是造成美中贸易逆差的原因,人民币升值过程中美中贸易逆差就会缩小,而事实上,2016年人民币兑美元汇率年均中间价比2005年升值了27.8%;同期美中贸易逆差为2507.93亿美元,比2005年增长了414.7%。由此说明,即使人民币汇率升值,美中贸易逆差也增大。其二,Granger检验结果显示:人民币汇率与中美双边贸易规模没有因果关系,人民币汇率既不是造成美中贸易逆差的"因",美中贸易逆差也不是人民币汇率的"果"。所以,美国单方认为美中贸易逆差是由于人民币汇率低估是毫无根据的。
[Abstract]:Is the RMB exchange rate the real cause of the U. S. -China trade deficit? This paper puts forward two paradoxes: first, if the undervaluation of RMB exchange rate is the cause of the trade deficit between the United States and China, the trade deficit between the United States and China will shrink in the course of RMB appreciation. In fact, the yuan rose 27.8 cents a year against the dollar in 2016, while the U.S. trade deficit with China was $250.793 billion, up 414.7from 2005. This shows that, even if the RMB exchange rate appreciation, the United States and China trade deficit also increased. Second, the Granger test shows that there is no causal relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the scale of bilateral trade between China and China. The RMB exchange rate is neither a "cause" of the US-China trade deficit, nor is the US-China trade deficit a "result" of the RMB exchange rate. So, the United States unilaterally claims that the U.S. trade deficit with China is due to an undervalued yuan.
【作者单位】：郑州大学西亚斯国际学院;
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6

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