美国量化宽松货币政策的有效性及传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 12:56

本文选题：美国 + 量化宽松货币政策　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年,起源于美国的金融危机给美国经济和世界经济带来了重创。又由于在危机到来时,美联储的联邦基金利率已降至接近于零的水平,致使传统货币政策失效。为应对这一危局,美联储实施了量化宽松货币政策,即通过美联储的大规模资产购买来为市场提供流动性,以达到刺激经济增长的目的。本论文将主要研究美国量化宽松货币政策对美国国内和世界其他国家产生的影响。通过研究美国的量化宽松货币政策对其国内影响的利弊得失,来进一步丰富我国宏观经济调控工具箱的内容。再者,我国作为美国最大的贸易伙伴国和债权国之一,美国的货币政策严重影响着我国的利益,所以本文也将研究美联储货币政策的外溢效应。首先,本文研究了美国量化宽松货币政策的国内传导机制。通过对各阶段不同传导机制的研究,分析了影响量化宽松货币政策有效性的因素,以及量化宽松货币政策可能给一国经济带来的不利影响。其次,本文通过建立误差修正模型(ECM)来实证检验美国量化宽松货币政策的有效性,并得出以下结论:美联储量化宽松货币政策有效,其在总体上能够压低美国的长期利率,提高美国的产出和就业。但量化宽松货币政策对就业短期无效、长期有效,存在着明显的时滞性,并且量化宽松货币政策对就业和产出的贡献度相对较小,所以导致量化宽松货币政策实施时间长,造成美联储资产负债表规模过大,不利于美国货币政策的正常化。接下来,本文研究美国量化宽松货币政策给全球经济带来的影响。美国作为世界最大的经济体和世界储备货币的发行国,美国的货币政策牵动着世界各国的神经。本文将着重分析美国量化宽松货币政策给其他国家经济带来的诸多负面影响,并建立了理论模型和实证分析模型来说明美国量化宽松货币政策对其他国家货币政策的影响。实证分析结果显示美联储的大规模资产购买对德国和法国央行的利率影响显著,对包括我国在内的金砖五国和一些发达经济体如加拿大、英国及日本的外汇储备影响显著。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the financial crisis originated in the United States brought heavy damage to the American economy and the world economy. And because the Fed's federal funds rate had fallen to near zero by the time of the crisis, traditional monetary policy had failed. In response to the crisis, the Fed implemented quantitative easing to provide liquidity to markets through the Fed's massive asset purchases in order to stimulate economic growth. This thesis will focus on the impact of quantitative easing monetary policy on the United States and the rest of the world. By studying the advantages and disadvantages of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States on its domestic effects, this paper further enriches the contents of China's macroeconomic control toolbox. Furthermore, as one of the largest trading partners and creditors of the United States, the monetary policy of the United States seriously affects the interests of our country, so this paper will also study the spillover effect of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. First, this paper studies the domestic transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. Through the study of different transmission mechanisms in different stages, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the effectiveness of quantitative easing monetary policy and the adverse effects that quantitative easing monetary policy may bring to a country's economy. Secondly, by establishing an error correction model, this paper empirically tests the effectiveness of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States, and draws the following conclusions: the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is effective, which can lower the long-term interest rate of the United States on the whole. To increase output and employment in the United States. However, the monetary policy of quantitative easing is ineffective in the short term, effective in the long term, and has obvious time delay. Moreover, the contribution of quantitative easing to employment and output is relatively small, which leads to the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy for a long time. The Fed's balance sheet is too large to normalise US monetary policy. Next, this paper studies the impact of quantitative easing monetary policy on the global economy. As the largest economy in the world and the issuer of the world reserve currency, the monetary policy of the United States affects the nerves of the world. This paper focuses on the analysis of the negative effects of the quantitative easing monetary policy on the economies of other countries, and establishes a theoretical model and an empirical analysis model to illustrate the impact of the quantitative easing monetary policy on the monetary policy of other countries. Empirical results show that the Fed's massive asset purchases have a significant impact on interest rates at central banks in Germany and France, as well as on foreign exchange reserves in the BRICS including China and some developed economies such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F827.12

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