影子银行与地方政府土地财政的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 00:25

本文选题：影子银行 + 土地财政　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文旨在分析探究地方政府的土地财政和影子银行之间的关系及其影响路径。土地财政模式的发展不仅为地方政府带来了土地出让金和土地相关税收收入,也通过土地抵押融资的方式为地方基础设施建设提供了额外资金。然而,在当前传统银行信贷对地方融资平台收缩的情况下,地方政府的土地财政依赖使其不得不转向影子银行寻求资金支持,从而变相加大了地方政府债务负担。影子银行参与地方政府债务通常经由具有政府背景的地方融资平台实现,具体来看,则表现为城投债,政信合作和委托贷款等方式。土地财政对影子银行产生影响的另一条可能途径是通过房地产市场实现的。地方政府的土地财政对房企融资规模和房价上涨有贡献作用,而房价的上涨又会吸引银行、信托在内的金融机构资金通过表外运作的形式间接进入房地产市场。这类资金由于受到监管较少,资金募集对象和投向不明晰,因此具备一定的影子银行特征。本文在以上分析的基础上对土地财政和影子银行的关系进行了实证检验,采用影子银行规模对土地财政、房价回归,以及房价对土地财政规模进行回归的多元回归方法,来检验上述理论假说。实证结果表明:(1)土地财政规模与影子银行规模的确存在正相关关系,且土地财政规模每增加1%,影子银行规模就增加0.3281%。(2)土地财政通过政府主动负债对影子银行产生的直接影响系数为0.2706,通过房地产企业融资产生的间接影响系数为0.057,直接影响约为间接影响的4.7倍。进一步可以得到,土地财政规模每增加一个单位,地方融资对影子银行规模产生的直接效应占总效应比重为82.5%,通过房地产企业融资产生的间接效应占总效应比重为17.5%,地方政府融资的直接效应占据主导地位。立足土地财政对影子银行的影响途径,笔者提出了相应的政策建议:(1)转变土地经营模式,提高土地真实现金流;(2)加快推进房产税制改革,完善保障房建设;(3)强化信息披露,加强协调监管。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between local government land finance and shadow banking and its influence path. The development of the land finance model not only brings the land transfer fee and the land related tax revenue to the local government, but also provides the extra funds for the local infrastructure construction through the land mortgage financing. However, under the circumstances that the traditional bank credit is shrinking to the local financing platform, the local government has to turn to the shadow bank for financial support because of the land finance dependence, thus increasing the debt burden of the local government. Shadow banks' participation in local government debt is usually realized through local financing platforms with government background. Another possible way for land finance to have an impact on shadow banking is through the real estate market. The land finance of the local government contributes to the financing scale of housing enterprises and the rise of house prices, and the rise of house prices will attract banks, trust and other financial institutions to indirectly enter the real estate market through the form of off-balance-sheet operation. This kind of fund has certain shadow banking characteristic because it is less regulated, and the object and direction of raising funds are not clear. Based on the above analysis, this paper makes an empirical test on the relationship between land finance and shadow banking, and adopts the multiple regression method of shadow bank scale to return land finance, house price, and house price to land finance scale. To test the theoretical hypothesis. The empirical results show that there is a positive correlation between the scale of land finance and the size of shadow banks. And for each increase in the scale of land finance, the scale of shadow banks will increase by 0.3281.Qu2) the direct impact coefficient of land finance on shadow banks through active government debt is 0.2706, and the indirect impact coefficient of financing through real estate enterprises is 0.057. The grafting effect was about 4.7 times of the indirect effect. Further, for every additional unit of land finance, The direct effect of local financing on the scale of shadow bank accounts for 82.5% of the total effect, the indirect effect of financing through real estate enterprises accounts for 17.5%, and the direct effect of local government financing occupies a dominant position. Based on the influence of land finance on shadow bank, the author puts forward the corresponding policy suggestion: 1) to change the land management mode, to improve the real land cash flow and 2) to speed up the reform of the real estate tax system, and to perfect the indemnificatory apartment construction to strengthen the information disclosure. Strengthen coordination and supervision.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2;F812;F832.3

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