中国货币政策有效性下降与预期管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 07:18

本文选题：货币政策 + 预期管理　；参考：《经济研究》2016年01期

【摘要】：中国货币政策的有效性已出现下降,表现为货币政策稳定宏观经济波动的能力明显减弱。本文通过构建一个包含预期误差冲击和预期管理的动态随机一般均衡模型,刻画了货币政策有效性下降的现状,从而研究货币政策有效性不足时预期管理应对经济波动的能力。数值模拟结果表明,预期管理通过逆周期引导市场通货膨胀预期,能够大幅减小经济波动并使经济更快收敛至稳态。同时,福利损失分析表明,在货币政策有效性不足的情况下引入预期管理,可以使得社会福利损失下降近40%。基于此,本文认为中国在货币政策有效性下降的背景下应加强对预期管理的重视。
[Abstract]:The effectiveness of China's monetary policy has declined, which shows that the ability of monetary policy to stabilize macroeconomic fluctuations is obviously weakened. By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including expected error shock and expected management, this paper describes the current situation of the decline of monetary policy effectiveness, and then studies the ability of expected management to deal with economic fluctuations when the effectiveness of monetary policy is insufficient. The numerical simulation results show that expectation management can greatly reduce the economic fluctuation and make the economy converge to steady state more quickly by guiding the market inflation expectation against the cycle. At the same time, welfare loss analysis shows that the introduction of expected management in the case of insufficient effectiveness of monetary policy can reduce the loss of social welfare by nearly 40%. Based on this, this paper argues that China should pay more attention to the expected management in the context of the decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;波士顿大学经济系;中国人民大学经济学院、中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71373266) 国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD004)的资助
【分类号】：F822.0

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