人民币汇率与城乡收入差距

发布时间：2018-05-07 07:55

本文选题：汇率 + 收入差距　；参考：《财经研究》2017年11期

【摘要】：在人民币国际化和汇率双向波动的背景下,人民币汇率变动对城乡收入差距的影响,即人民币汇率变动的分配效应不容忽视。现有研究对这一问题的探讨大多强调其线性影响,且存在重大分歧。鉴于此,文章基于开放经济的视角,从我国二元经济结构层面来揭示汇率变动作用于城乡收入差距的微观机理。理论分析表明,汇率变动会通过城乡可贸易品的比重和劳动生产率影响城乡收入差距。为刻画上述影响,文章进一步采用Hansen(1999)的面板门槛模型进行实证分析,结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率变动对城乡收入差距的影响依赖于地区人均收入水平和贸易开放度,且呈现非对称性和区域异质性特征,即人民币汇率升值有利于缩小中低收入水平地区的城乡收入差距,但会扩大高收入水平且高贸易开放度地区的城乡收入差距,而对中高收入水平且低贸易开放度地区的影响则不明显。因此,随着人民币汇率市场化改革的不断推进,因地而异地看待汇率变动的分配效应并因地制宜采取措施加以应对,将是中国政府未来应该正视的课题。
[Abstract]:Under the background of RMB internationalization and two-way fluctuation of exchange rate, the influence of RMB exchange rate change on urban-rural income gap, that is, the distributive effect of RMB exchange rate change, can not be ignored. Most of the existing studies emphasize the linear effect of this problem, and there are significant differences. In view of this, based on the perspective of open economy, this paper reveals the micro mechanism of exchange rate change on urban-rural income gap from the perspective of dual economic structure in China. The theoretical analysis shows that the change of exchange rate will affect the income gap between urban and rural areas through the proportion of tradable goods and labor productivity in urban and rural areas. In order to depict the above effects, the paper further adopts Hansen's 1999 panel threshold model to carry out empirical analysis. The results show that the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the income gap between urban and rural areas depends on the level of regional per capita income and the degree of trade openness. It also shows asymmetric and regional heterogeneity, that is, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate is conducive to narrowing the urban-rural income gap in low- and middle-income areas, but it will expand the urban-rural income gap in high-income and high-trade open areas. However, the impact on high-income and low-trade openness areas is not obvious. Therefore, with the continuous promotion of the marketization of RMB exchange rate, it will be a subject that the Chinese government should face up to in the future to treat the distributive effect of exchange rate change in different places and take measures to deal with it according to local conditions.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学经济学院;青岛银行;武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJY069)
【分类号】：F124.7;F832.6

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