地理距离、关系与民间借贷违约风险——基于240个法院纠纷案件调查数据的分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 22:33

本文选题：民间借贷 + 违约　；参考：《亚太经济》2017年02期

【摘要】：通过构建多元线性回归模型,使用240个民间借贷纠纷案件调查数据,检验地理距离、关系及其交互项对民间借贷违约风险的影响,结果表明:地理距离对违约风险有显著的正向影响,尤其在月利率小于2%的借贷中影响程度更大;关系对违约风险有显著的负向影响,而且在月利率高于等于2%和本金小于100万元的借贷中尤其显著;地理距离和关系对于降低利率小于2%和本金小于100万元借贷的违约风险具有相互作用,即随着借贷双方关系紧密性增强,地理距离对违约风险的正向影响程度相应减弱。
[Abstract]:By constructing a multivariate linear regression model and using 240 investigation data of non-government loan disputes, this paper examines the influence of geographical distance, relationship and their interactions on the default risk of private lending. The results show that geographical distance has a significant positive impact on default risk, especially in loans with monthly interest rate less than 2%, and the relationship has a significant negative impact on default risk. Moreover, the monthly interest rate is higher than or equal to 2% and the principal amount is less than 1 million yuan; geographical distance and relationship have interaction to reduce the default risk of interest rate less than 2% and principal less than 1 million yuan. As the relationship between borrowers and borrowers increases, the positive impact of geographical distance on default risk weakens accordingly.
【作者单位】：福建农林大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“社会资本与民间借贷风险控制研究”(12CGL022)的成果之一
【分类号】：F832.4;D922.282

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