金融发展与储蓄增长的关联机制研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 06:18

本文选题：金融发展 + 生命周期假说　；参考：《经济纵横》2017年11期

【摘要】：依据生命周期假说,将金融发展变量引入储蓄模型中,定量分析金融发展、收入水平、人口结构对居民储蓄增长的影响作用。选取2001~2016年季度时间序列数据,通过构造ARDL边限检验解释说明各变量间长期协整关系,并使用动态最小二乘法(DOLS)对人均居民储蓄方程的长期系数进行估计,通过构造误差修正模型说明金融发展的短期影响机制。实证结果表明,从长期看金融发展对人均居民储蓄存在显著的促进作用,其波动在短期内给居民储蓄波动带来正向影响。
[Abstract]:According to the life cycle hypothesis, the financial development variables are introduced into the savings model to quantitatively analyze the effects of financial development, income level and population structure on the growth of household savings. Based on the data of 2001 ~ 2016 quarterly time series, the long-term cointegration relationship between the variables is explained by constructing the ARDL boundary test, and the long-term coefficient of the per capita resident savings equation is estimated by using the dynamic least square method. The short-term influence mechanism of financial development is explained by constructing error correction model. The empirical results show that, in the long run, the financial development has a significant promoting effect on the per capita household savings, and its fluctuations have a positive impact on the residents' savings fluctuations in the short term.
【作者单位】：吉林大学经济学院;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“引领经济发展新常态的市场基础、体制机制和发展方式研究”(编号:15ZDC008) 中国博士后科学基金面上项目“新常态下经济增长的趋势性、波动性与收敛性问题研究”(编号:2017M611305)的成果
【分类号】：F832

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