我国货币政策的城乡结构效应

发布时间：2018-05-10 10:36

本文选题：货币政策传导机制 + 城乡二元结构　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：新中国成立以来我国实行向工业和城市倾斜的政策,在加快工业化、城市化发展的同时,也形成并加剧了城乡二元经济结构,导致城乡地区在居民收入和消费、金融与经济发展水平等方面都存在较大差距。城乡二元结构制约着我国当前和长远的经济发展,也不利于安定团结。党和国家高度重视城乡发展失衡的问题,在"十二五"、"十三五"规划、十八大报告以及政府工作报告中多次提及统筹城乡协调发展的问题。因此在当前背景下研究统一的货币政策是否会在城乡地区之间产生不同的影响,分析造成此不同的原因,具有重要的现实意义。本文首先概述了货币政策传导机制的经典理论。货币政策传导机制是指货币政策通过不同的传导渠道影响宏观经济变量的动态机制。货币政策主要有三个传导渠道,分别是利率、资产价格和信贷渠道。结合我国的货币政策实践和部分学者的研究发现我国的利率渠道存在梗阻,信贷渠道和货币供应量在实际的货币政策操作中扮演着重要角色。货币政策不仅具有总体效应,影响总产出、物价和就业水平,也会产生经济结构效应,对不同的经济部门(如产业、区域和城乡等)产生异质性的影响。本文通过文献梳理发现货币政策结构效应相关文章主要从产业和区域两方面进行论述,对城乡结构效应分析较少。因此本文结合我国货币政策实践,把城乡二元经济结构因素考虑在内,使用我国1989至2014年的年度经济数据,构建结构向量自回归模型,进行脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析来论证货币政策在城乡间的不同影响。格兰杰因果检验表明货币政策通过信贷和货币供应变量的传导实现对城乡经济的影响和调节作用。信贷规模和货币供应量相互独立,前者引导后者调控经济。另外发现城镇收入是农村收入变动的格兰杰原因,这与我国优先促进城市发展,城镇经济带动农村经济的非均衡发展道路是相吻合的。脉冲响应函数表明货币政策对于城乡的影响程度和影响时滞具有差异。与城市相比,货币政策对农村的影响存在滞后。方差分解表明信贷对于城市与农村地区的人均收入变动均有重要影响,并且城市经济发展的内生作用较强,反映了我国城乡二元经济结构体制下,产业、资本、技术、人才等都生产要素往城市集聚,促进了城市经济的内生性增长。基于实证结果的分析,本文在最后提出了几点建议。首先要打破二元结构,力促一体化发展;其次城乡有别,灵活使用货币政策。三是改善农村金融市场,让金融惠农强农。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China has implemented a policy of favoring industry and cities. While accelerating industrialization and urbanization, it has also formed and intensified the dual economic structure between urban and rural areas, resulting in the income and consumption of residents in urban and rural areas. There is a big gap between finance and economic development. The dual structure of urban and rural areas restricts China's current and long-term economic development and is not conducive to stability and unity. The Party and the state attach great importance to the imbalance of urban and rural development. In the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, the 18th National Congress report and the government work report, the issue of coordinating urban and rural development has been mentioned many times. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study whether the unified monetary policy will have different effects between urban and rural areas under the current background and to analyze the causes of these differences. This paper first summarizes the classical theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism. Monetary policy transmission mechanism refers to the dynamic mechanism that monetary policy affects macroeconomic variables through different transmission channels. Monetary policy has three main transmission channels, namely interest rate, asset price and credit channel. Combined with the practice of monetary policy in China and the research of some scholars, it is found that there is obstruction in the channel of interest rate in our country, and credit channel and money supply play an important role in the actual operation of monetary policy. Monetary policy not only has the overall effect, affects the total output, the price and the employment level, also can produce the economic structure effect, produces the heterogeneity influence to the different economic sector (such as industry, the region and the urban and rural areas) and so on. Through literature review, this paper finds that monetary policy structural effects are mainly discussed from the industrial and regional aspects, and the analysis of the urban-rural structure effect is less. Therefore, this paper combines the monetary policy practice of our country, taking into account the urban and rural dual economic structure factors, using the annual economic data from 1989 to 2014, constructs the structural vector autoregressive model. Impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are carried out to demonstrate the different effects of monetary policy between urban and rural areas. Granger causality test shows that monetary policy influences and adjusts the urban and rural economy through the transmission of credit and money supply variables. Credit scale and money supply are independent of each other, the former guide the latter to adjust and control the economy. In addition, it is found that urban income is the Granger reason for the change of rural income, which is consistent with the unbalanced development of rural economy driven by urban economy. The impulse response function shows that the influence of monetary policy on urban and rural areas and the impact of time delay are different. Compared with cities, the impact of monetary policy on rural areas lags behind. Variance decomposition shows that credit has an important impact on the change of per capita income in both urban and rural areas, and the endogenous role of urban economic development is relatively strong, reflecting the dual economic structure of urban and rural China, industry, capital, technology, Talent and other factors of production agglomerate to the city, promoting the endogenous growth of urban economy. Based on the analysis of empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions at the end. First, we should break the dualistic structure and promote the development of integration; secondly, we should use monetary policy flexibly and differ between urban and rural areas. Third, improve the rural financial market, so that finance benefits agriculture.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0

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