金融危机后产出缺口理论的回顾、反思与最新进展

发布时间：2018-05-18 18:11

本文选题：产出缺口 + 潜在产出　；参考：《中国人民大学学报》2016年02期

【摘要】：从2008年开始的世界金融危机仍在持续,对世界经济造成巨大影响。在这次金融危机中,传统产出缺口理论遭遇巨大挑战,直接测算与间接标示都未能成功预测危机,原有应对政策的效力也大幅下降。传统测算方法的问题、菲利普斯曲线的平缓化、均衡利率的持续下降等问题在危机前就已存在,并经危机更加凸显,这是传统产出缺口研究失效的一个重要原因。此外,危机中金融因素对产出缺口测算的影响、对通胀盯住制的削弱、对利率调节的限制则是原有理论失灵的另一重要缘由。要应对产出缺口研究出现的问题以及危机后实际产出增速的放缓,不仅要在凯恩斯主义政策框架内改善产出缺口的状况,还要从结构主义的视角解决潜在产出的变化问题。
[Abstract]:The world financial crisis, which began in 2008, continues and has a huge impact on the world economy. In this financial crisis, the traditional theory of output gap is confronted with great challenges, both direct calculation and indirect marking fail to predict the crisis successfully, and the effectiveness of the original policy is also greatly reduced. The problems of traditional calculation methods, the flattening of Phillips curve and the continuous decline of equilibrium interest rate have existed before the crisis and become more prominent after the crisis, which is an important reason for the failure of the traditional research on output gap. In addition, the influence of financial factors on the measurement of output gap, the weakening of inflation pegged system, and the restriction of interest rate adjustment are another important reason for the failure of the original theory. In order to deal with the problems in the study of output gap and the slowdown of real output growth after the crisis, we should not only improve the situation of output gap within the framework of Keynesian policy, but also solve the problem of the change of potential output from the perspective of structuralism.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F831.59

【相似文献】