新的汇率形成机制下我国汇率超调低调现象及其形成机理研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 19:16

本文选题：汇率制度 + 超调和低调　；参考：《外交学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年8月11日,中国人民银行发布了《关于完善人民币汇率形成机制改革的公告》,继续深化了人民币汇率中间价定价机制的改革。本文从汇率制度改革的背景出发,研究了“811汇改”前后我国的经济现状和出现的问题。文章研究的目的为汇率制度改革以来的超调低调现象以及形成机理,因此在梳理了超调和低调的理论之后,选取均衡汇率理论来研究,研究结果表明“811汇改”之后存在较大程度的人民币低估,有较强的汇率超调问题,低调现象较少出现并且不显著。这种经济现象由多种因素共同发生作用而发生,美国经济复苏及其加息政策、市场贬值预期、汇率市场的分割和联动共同导致了汇率的超调,而央行的过度干预导致了低调问题。在应对汇率超调时,央行采取汇率政策、外汇干预和资本管制的措施,通过这些措施的相互影响和作用,为维持我国的汇率市场稳定和抑制人民币贬值发挥了作用,而央行的过度干预导致了汇率低调现象。不可否认的是,由于央行在稳定汇率水平多次干预市场,让人民币的国际化之路显得依然任重而道远。
[Abstract]:On August 11, 2015, the people's Bank of China issued a notice on the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, which continued to deepen the reform of the mid-price pricing mechanism of the RMB exchange rate. Based on the background of exchange rate system reform, this paper studies the present economic situation and problems before and after the "811 Exchange rate Reform" in China. The purpose of this paper is to study the phenomenon and formation mechanism of overshoot since the reform of exchange rate system, so after combing the theory of super-harmony and low-key, we choose the equilibrium exchange rate theory to study. The results show that after the "811 exchange rate reform", the RMB is undervalued to a large extent, there is a strong exchange rate overshoot problem, and the phenomenon of understatement is rare and not significant. This economic phenomenon is caused by a combination of various factors. The recovery of the US economy and its policy of raising interest rates, market depreciation expectations, and the segmentation and linkage of the exchange rate market have all led to the overshoot of the exchange rate. And the central bank's excessive intervention led to a low-key problem. In dealing with the exchange rate overshoot, the central bank has adopted exchange rate policy, foreign exchange intervention and capital control measures. Through the mutual influence and function of these measures, it has played a role in maintaining the stability of our exchange rate market and curbing the depreciation of the renminbi. And the central bank's excessive intervention led to a low-key exchange rate. Undeniably, the central bank has repeatedly intervened in the market at stable exchange rate levels, making the internationalization of the yuan appear to be a long way off.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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