区域杠杆、经济增长与金融稳定——基于空间面板杜宾模型的研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 10:49

本文选题：杠杆率 + 区域经济增长　；参考：《新疆社会科学》2017年05期

【摘要】：文章基于全国30个省际2010~2015年的面板数据,采用SDM空间杜宾面板数据模型对区域杠杆率、经济增长与金融稳定之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:我国地区总杠杆率水平存在空间扩散效应,经济增长、经济结构改善、金融业发展、人力资源优化等多方面协同能够降低杠杆率水平,而金融杠杆波动所导致的金融不稳定亦会引致去杠杆效应。上述结论具有比较确切的政策启示:首先,应充分认识稳增长、调结构与去杠杆的辩证关系,秉持区域禀赋原则实行差异化政策;其次,地方监管部门应协同防范金融杠杆率过度波动,避免暴力去杠杆诱发债务通缩,并进而引致金融体系不稳定和系统性金融风险的发生;最后,深化金融体系改革,发挥地区优势,推动金融业切实服务实体经济。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 30 inter provincial 2010~2015 years in China, the paper uses the SDM space Dobbin panel data model to analyze the relationship between regional leverage ratio, economic growth and financial stability. The results show that the total leverage ratio in China has spatial diffusion effect, economic growth, economic structure improvement, financial industry development. Many aspects of synergy, such as exhibition and human resource optimization, can reduce the level of leverage, and the financial instability caused by the financial leverage fluctuation can also lead to deleveraging effect. The above conclusions have certain policy implications: first, we should fully understand the dialectical relationship between the stable growth, the structure and the delever, and carry out the difference in the principle of regional endowment. Secondly, the local regulatory authorities should cooperate to prevent excessive volatility of financial leverage, avoid violent deleverage induced debt deflation, and lead to the instability of the financial system and the occurrence of systematic financial risks; finally, deepen the reform of the financial system, bring into play the regional advantages, and push the financial industry to serve the real economy.
【作者单位】：广东金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融产业链效应与区域产业结构差异及其空间扩散的实证研究”(71373056);国家自然科学基金青年项目“区域经济关联与金融资源竞争的空间动态效应研究”(71603059) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“金融资源的空间扩散与锁定效应的区域比较研究”(13YJC790117)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F124.1;F832

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