汇率波动对人民币国际化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 02:09

本文选题：汇率波动 + 人民币国际化　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国的经济实力提升,中国在国际上的地位一路攀升,中国在国际间的贸易往来和资本流动,都到了日益重要的阶段。人民币作为中国在国际间合作的媒介,越来越受到学界重视,人民币国际化问题日渐成为研究的热点。同时,由于2015年出台的"811"汇改,中国的汇率制度有了重大改革,这样的变化,带来了一系列的影响,同时也对人民币的国际化带来影响。在人民币国际化的众多影响因素中,汇率波动是一个的重要因素。本文的目标是将二者结合起来,研究二者之间存在的关系,以此为基础提出一些建议,能够对人民币国际化进程起到推进的作用。本文的理论部分首先阐述了受到公认的货币国际化影响因素是如何对货币国际化产生影响的。之后聚焦到汇率波动上。汇率波动对资本市场和国际贸易产生的影响会间接传导到货币国际化上。所以文章将汇率波动对资本市场的影响途径和汇率波动对国际贸易的影响途径分开来详细阐述,理清了汇率波动对货币国际化的影响路径。从历史借鉴的角度,本文研究了货币汇率的波动对货币国际化的影响事实。文章选取马克、日元和欧元作为借鉴货币,对三种货币在国际化中经历的不同阶段进行阐述,同时结合相应阶段的汇率变动,从而直观而真实地展现出三国货币国际化中汇率波动的影响。为人民币国际化提供可参考的经验。实证分析则集中在证明汇率波动对人民币国际化的影响。本文以人民币国际化作为被解释变量,将汇率波动作为解释变量,将经济实力、金融市场发达程度、通货膨胀、利差作为控制变量,选取2003Q1—2015Q2的中国市场的季度数据,建立计量模型。研究发现:中国的经济实力对人民币国际化程度有较大的积极影响,金融市场发展指标对人民币国际化有显著的积极影响,而解释变量汇率波动对人民币国际化有显著负影响。这一结论与现实预期基本一致,面临波动率的汇率的货币以为这较高的持有风险,将削弱市场对该货币的持有信心,不利于高货币的国际化进程。最后,以实证研究结果为参考,本文提出一些政策建议,认为中国应该以经济发展为基础,保持汇率为前提,健全人民币汇率制度,加强完善金融市场,并且提高货币政策稳定性同时增加中国的国际地位,以此来逐步推进人民币国际化。
[Abstract]:With China's economic strength rising, China's position in the international community has climbed, and China's international trade and capital flows have reached an increasingly important stage. As the media of China's international cooperation, RMB has been paid more and more attention by academic circles, and the internationalization of RMB has become a hot topic. At the same time, as a result of the "811" currency reform introduced in 2015, China's exchange rate regime has undergone a major reform, which has brought about a series of effects, as well as an impact on the internationalization of the renminbi. Among the many influencing factors of RMB internationalization, exchange rate fluctuation is an important factor. The purpose of this paper is to combine the two, study the relationship between them, and put forward some suggestions on this basis, which can promote the process of RMB internationalization. In the theoretical part of this paper, we first explain how the recognized factors of currency internationalization influence currency internationalization. Then focus on exchange rate fluctuations. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on capital markets and international trade is indirectly transmitted to currency internationalization. Therefore, the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on capital market and the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on international trade are discussed in detail, and the influence path of exchange rate fluctuation on currency internationalization is clarified. From the historical point of view, this paper studies the influence of currency exchange rate fluctuation on currency internationalization. This paper selects Mark, Japanese yen and euro as reference currencies to expound the different stages experienced by the three currencies in the process of internationalization, and at the same time, combine with the exchange rate changes in the corresponding stages. Thus, the effect of exchange rate fluctuation in the internationalization of the three countries' currencies is shown intuitively and truthfully. Provide reference experience for RMB internationalization. The empirical analysis focuses on proving the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on RMB internationalization. This paper takes RMB internationalization as explanatory variable, exchange rate fluctuation as explanatory variable, economic strength, financial market development, inflation and spread as controlling variables, and selects quarterly data of China market of 2003Q1-2015Q2. The measurement model is established. It is found that China's economic strength has a great positive impact on the degree of RMB internationalization, the financial market development index has a significant positive impact on RMB internationalization, and the explanatory variable exchange rate fluctuation has a significant negative impact on RMB internationalization. This conclusion is basically in line with realistic expectations. Currencies facing volatility believe that this higher risk of holding will weaken market confidence in the currency and undermine the internationalization process of high currencies. Finally, based on the empirical research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions that China should take economic development as the foundation, maintain the exchange rate as the premise, perfect the RMB exchange rate system, strengthen and perfect the financial market. And improve the stability of monetary policy and increase China's international status, so as to gradually promote the internationalization of the renminbi.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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