碳价格对中国工业外商直接投资的潜在影响

发布时间：2018-06-07 00:13

本文选题：碳价格 + 碳价格映射　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年10期

【摘要】：作为未来一段时期市场化减排政策的重要抓手,中国将于2017年启动全国碳交易市场。通过施加碳价格,碳市场将对不同行业的生产成本产生影响。那么,碳价格对中国工业外商直接投资的影响如何?是否有助于优化吸引FDI的行业结构?这正是本文关注的焦点。为了克服碳价格数据不足的问题,本文构建了碳价格与煤炭、天然气等五种能源价格之间的映射关系,并采用1999—2013年36个工业行业的面板数据,估计了能源成本对外商直接投资相对规模和绝对规模的影响,并通过碳市场不同价格水平与能源成本之间的映射关系,对工业行业吸引FDI的潜在影响进行了反事实测算。论文的主要结果有:(1)碳价格与能源成本之间的映射关系存在行业异质性,这是由不同工业行业的能源消费结构差异所致。(2)能源成本对整体FDI的规模不存在显著负向影响。其对中国吸引FDI的相对规模和绝对规模的影响在高耗能行业和非高耗能行业间存在显著的差异。(3)不同碳价格水平对中国工业吸引FDI的相对规模、绝对规模和行业结构都将产生显著影响。碳价格将显著降低高耗能行业的FDI规模,但对非高耗能行业的外资规模具有促进作用;对FDI的绝对规模的影响较之相对规模更显著。碳价格为50元时,高耗能行业FDI的相对规模累积下降2%—7%,绝对规模累积下降3%—13%;非高耗能行业FDI的相对规模累积增加1.5%—3%,绝对规模累积增加0.1%—0.3%。上述结果说明,全国碳市场建立对中国工业吸引FDI的整体规模不会产生显著的负面影响,但有助于提高非高耗能行业的FDI流入,并降低高耗能行业的FDI流入,优化工业吸引外资的行业结构。
[Abstract]:As an important player in market-oriented emissions reduction policies for some time to come, China will launch a national carbon trading market in 2017. By imposing a carbon price, the carbon market will have an impact on the cost of production in different industries. So, what is the impact of carbon price on FDI in Chinese industry? Will it help optimize the industry structure that attracts FDI? This is the focus of this paper. In order to overcome the shortage of carbon price data, this paper constructs the mapping relationship between carbon price and five kinds of energy prices, such as coal and natural gas, and adopts panel data of 36 industrial industries from 1999 to 2013. The impact of energy cost on the relative and absolute scale of foreign direct investment is estimated, and the potential impact of industrial industry on attracting FDI is estimated by the mapping relationship between different price levels of carbon market and energy cost. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) the mapping relationship between carbon price and energy cost has industry heterogeneity, which is caused by the difference of energy consumption structure in different industries. (2) the energy cost has no significant negative influence on the scale of FDI as a whole. There are significant differences between high energy consuming industries and non-high energy consuming industries on the relative scale and absolute scale of China's FDI attraction. Both absolute size and industry structure will have a significant impact. Carbon price will significantly reduce the FDI scale of high-energy consuming industries, but promote the scale of foreign investment in non-energy-consuming industries, and the impact on the absolute scale of FDI is more significant than that on the relative scale. When the carbon price is 50 yuan, the relative scale accumulation of FDI in high energy consuming industry decreases by 2% -7%, and the absolute scale accumulative drop is 3% -13%; the relative scale accumulation of FDI in non-high energy consuming industry increases by 1.5% -3%, and the absolute scale accumulative increase is 0.1% -0.3%. These results suggest that the establishment of a national carbon market will not have a significant negative impact on the overall scale of FDI attraction to Chinese industries, but will help to increase FDI inflows in non-energy-intensive industries and reduce FDI inflows in energy-intensive industries. Optimize the industrial structure of attracting foreign investment.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于碳价格映射的中国工业能源结构优化研究”(批准号:71503087)
【分类号】：F424;F832.6

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