影子体系的发展变迁及资金的实虚流转变化

发布时间：2018-06-12 01:32

本文选题：影子银行 + 去杠杆　；参考：《新金融》2017年09期

【摘要】：本文分析影子银行的兴起和变迁历史,结合当前金融去杠杆和资金"脱实向虚"等热点,以银行体系(包括影子银行)的负债方(称作M3)以及实体经济部门的负债方(称作广义社会融资)变化点,定义并估算了资金在实体部门和虚拟经济之间的流转情况。估算结果显示2016年底以来,资金已经开始出现"脱虚向实"的趋势转折,这反映了实体经济领域融资需求的恢复和监管部门金融去杠杆的努力。从M3与广义社会融资的长期关系以及过去几年通过"脱实向虚"积累的背离来看,目前正在开始的修正过程将需要较长时间的逐步调整来完成。资金持续离开虚拟市场意味着资产价格的估值中枢将承受持续的压力,债券市场的利率水平易涨难跌,并会出现间歇式的流动性紧张,甚至个别金融机构的兑付困难。股票市场必须通过可持续的盈利增长来吸收估值压力,这将对市场风格形成影响,并使得短期内难以出现快速和普遍的市场大幅度上涨。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the history of the rise and change of the shadow banking, and combines the current financial deleveraging and "devirtual" hot spots, and defines and estimates the capital between the entity sector and the virtual economy, with the debtor (called M3) in the banking system (including the shadow bank) and the debt party of the real economic sector (called the generalized social financing). The results show that since the end of 2016, funds have begun to appear the turning point of "taking off the virtual reality", which reflects the recovery of financial demand in the real economy and the efforts of the financial delever of the regulatory authorities. From the long-term relationship between M3 and the broad sense of social financing and the deviation from the accumulation of "de reality to virtual" in the past few years, The ongoing revision process will require a longer period of gradual adjustment. The continuous departure of capital from the virtual market means that the valuation center of the asset price will be under constant pressure, the interest rate of the bond market is prone to rise and fall, and there will be intermittent liquidity tension and even the cash difficulties of individual financial institutions. The field must absorb valuation pressures through sustainable earnings growth, which will affect market style and make it difficult for a rapid and widespread market to rise in the short term.
【作者单位】：安信证券;
【分类号】：F832

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