影子银行对中国银行体系稳定性的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 00:10

本文选题：影子银行 + 商业银行稳定性　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着金融自由化和金融创新程度的不断加深,影子银行业务成为传统银行信贷业务之外的又一重要融资渠道,在拓展我国金融市场的深度和广度,完善我国的金融制度方面发挥着不可忽视的作用。影子银行主要是指那些复制商业银行信用创造功能的,受到较少监管或不受监管的金融机构及其业务,与银行体系有着非常复杂的关系。一方面,影子银行是对传统融资渠道的补充,它缓解了资金供给和需求不匹配的矛盾,帮助中小企业解决融资难的问题,优化了资源配置效率,并促进了传统商业银行盈利模式的转变;另一方面,由于影子银行游离于监管之外,容易造成业务的盲目扩张和不理性投融资行为,再加上影子银行具有高杠杆性、期限错配、流动性转换、信用创造、信用风险转换等特性,放大了我国金融市场的系统性风险,容易造成金融危机。本文在前人的研究基础上,梳理了影子银行的定义和发展历程,分析了中国式影子银行产生的内在逻辑,并探讨了影子银行对银行体系稳定性的作用机理。此外,本文还尝试用2006年第一季度至2016年第四季度的样本数据,从融资口径的角度统计我国影子银行的规模,并用因子分析法测算这一时期银行体系的稳定性程度,然后运用回归分析的方法构建影子银行规模增长的影响因素模型和影子银行规模增长对商业银行体系稳定性影响的检验模型,从实证角度研究我国影子银行规模增长的影响因素以及影子银行规模增长给商业银行体系稳定性所带来的后果。最后对我国影子银行监管改革提出建议。本文的主要结论如下:1、影子银行业务与传统商业银行信贷业务之间存在替代关系。当国家宏观调控收缩信贷规模时,影子银行会代替传统银行信贷业务成为新的社会融资渠道。同时,影子银行的发展与商业银行经营情况也有关。若商业银行资产质量下降,或者有意限制风险资产的增长,则商业银行出于稳健经营的考虑,会相应减少影子银行业务。2、影子银行规模与商业银行体系稳定性之间存在着长期的协整关系和双向的格兰杰因果关系,两者的关系呈“倒U”型,即当影子银行小于一定规模时,商业银行体系稳定性会随着影子银行规模的增长而升高,但当影子银行超过一定的规模后,银行体系稳定性会随着影子银行规模的增长而降低。因此,应该正确对待影子银行,将影子银行纳入到监管中来,并加强对系统性风险的防范。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the deepening of financial liberalization and financial innovation, shadow banking has become another important financing channel in addition to the traditional bank credit business, and has expanded the depth and breadth of our financial market. Perfecting our country's financial system is playing an important role. Shadow banking mainly refers to those financial institutions and their business which copy the credit creation function of commercial banks and are less or not regulated. It has a very complex relationship with the banking system. On the one hand, shadow banking is a supplement to traditional financing channels. It alleviates the contradiction between the supply of funds and the mismatch of demand, helps small and medium-sized enterprises solve the problem of financing difficulties, and optimizes the efficiency of resource allocation. On the other hand, shadow banking is easy to lead to blind expansion of business and irrational investment and financing behavior, and shadow banking has high leverage, term mismatch, on the other hand, it is easy to cause blind expansion of business and irrational investment and financing behavior. The characteristics of liquidity conversion, credit creation and credit risk conversion amplify the systemic risk of our financial market and easily cause financial crisis. On the basis of previous studies, this paper analyzes the definition and development of shadow banking, analyzes the internal logic of shadow banking in China, and discusses the mechanism of shadow banking on the stability of the banking system. In addition, this paper also tries to use the sample data from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2016 to calculate the scale of shadow banking in China from the perspective of financing caliber, and to calculate the stability of the banking system in this period by factor analysis. Then the regression analysis method is used to construct the influencing factors model of shadow bank scale growth and the test model of the influence of shadow bank scale growth on the stability of commercial bank system. This paper studies the influencing factors of shadow banking scale growth in China and the consequences of shadow banking scale growth on the stability of commercial banking system from an empirical point of view. Finally, some suggestions on the reform of shadow banking supervision in China are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. There is a substitute relationship between shadow banking and traditional commercial bank credit. When the state macroscopically controls and shrinks the credit scale, the shadow bank will replace the traditional bank credit business as the new social financing channel. At the same time, the development of shadow banking and commercial banking business situation is also related. If the quality of assets of commercial banks declines, or if they intend to limit the growth of risky assets, then commercial banks are considering sound operation. There is a long-term cointegration relationship and a two-way Granger causality relationship between the size of shadow banking and the stability of the commercial banking system. The relationship between them is "inverted U". That is, when the shadow banking is smaller than a certain scale, the stability of the commercial banking system will increase with the increase of the scale of the shadow banking, but when the shadow bank exceeds a certain scale, the stability of the banking system will decrease with the increase of the scale of the shadow banking. Therefore, we should treat shadow banking correctly, bring shadow banking into supervision, and strengthen the prevention of systemic risk.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.3

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