中国货币政策有效性研究：分阶段中介目标视角

发布时间：2018-06-15 06:57

本文选题：货币政策有效性 + 中介目标　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1984年我国中央银行开始独立行使职能以来,货币政策一直是我国中央银行用来调控经济,应对危机的重要手段。三十多年来,中国经济取得了巨大的成绩,战胜了许多挑战。现如今中国面临经济发展的新常态与新挑战。通过货币政策有效性问题的研究,可以为今后的政策制定提供参考,使得货币政策更好地服务中国经济的发展与转型。本文对货币政策有效性问题的研究从理论与实证两个方面进行研究。理论方面:分析了影响货币的中性与非中性、货币供给的内生与外生与货币传导的渠道的因素,并结合我国的实践情况加以讨论。我国货币具有非中性,供给外生以及传导主要依赖信用渠道的特点。实证方面:选取1992年-2016年季度数据,以不同时期货币政策中介目标划分,对货币政策变量与实际产出与物价变量进行协整分析、格兰杰非因果检验、脉冲响应分析与方差分解检验。实证结果表明:货币政策有效,并且货币的数量指标的效果大于利率指标。但随着时间的推移,货币政策的效果是不断下降的。根据理论分析并结合实证检验的结果,本文得出中国货币政策长期以来是有效的,但是效果是不断减弱的。我国货币政策主要是通过信贷渠道进行传导的,利率渠道传导效果随着利率市场化的不断推进有所提高。根据本文的研究结果,建议今后的货币政策制定要综合考虑各个最终目标,并不断完善利率市场,资本市场与外汇市场以加强其他渠道的货币传导效果。
[Abstract]:Since the Central Bank of China began to function independently in 1984, monetary policy has been an important means used by the Central Bank of China to control the economy and cope with the crisis. For more than thirty years, China's economy has achieved great achievements and defeated many challenges. Now China faces new normal and new challenges for economic development. The research on the efficiency problem can provide reference for future policy formulation, make monetary policy better serve the development and transformation of China's economy. The research on the validity of monetary policy is studied from two aspects of theory and demonstration. The factors of the channel of exogenous and monetary transmission are discussed in accordance with the practice of our country. The currency of our country is non neutral, the supply of exogenous and the transmission mainly depends on the credit channel. In the empirical aspect, we select the quarterly data of -2016 in 1992 to divide the monetary policy variables and actual output in different period of monetary policy. Cointegration analysis is carried out with price variables, Glenn Jaffe causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition test. The empirical results show that monetary policy is effective, and the effect of the quantity index of money is greater than the interest rate index. However, the effect of monetary policy is not broken down with time. Based on theoretical analysis and empirical test The result is that China's monetary policy has been effective for a long time, but the effect is constantly weakening. The monetary policy of China is mainly conducted through credit channels. The effect of the transmission of interest rate channels is improved with the continuous promotion of interest rate marketization. According to the results of this paper, it is suggested that the formulation of monetary policy should be integrated in the future. We should consider every eventual goal and constantly improve interest rate market, capital market and foreign exchange market to strengthen the monetary transmission effect of other channels.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0

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