人民币汇率对不同类型FDI的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-18 08:09

本文选题：汇率 + 波动性　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：FDI是中国资本流入的主要形式,受汇率变化影响较大。在中国经济改革和对外开放新阶段,研究人民币汇率对于不同类型FDI的影响具有重要的现实意义。本文对汇率影响FDI进行了理论分析。首先是从汇率水平和汇率波动两个角度分析了汇率带来的财富效应、成本效应、风险效应和实物期权效应;其次,分析了汇率对中国出口导向型和市场导向型FDI的影响机制;再次,从企业生产换汇的角度提出出口导向型FDI比市场导向型FDI更容易受汇率变动的影响;最后,引入产品外销比例变量,从数理经济学角度分析了汇率通过影响产品的出口进而影响FDI流入的规模,且汇率对于FDI的影响随的增大而影响作用增大,得出与4个效应理论相符且与影响机制相容的结论。汇率通过影响外资企业出口进而影响外资企业生产时的资本投入也即FDI流入。本文对汇率影响FDI流入进行了实证分析。在对1999-2007年的工业企业数据进行统计描述的基础上,构造省级面板数据,得出出口导向的东部地区省份的FDI流入更容易受汇率影响的判断;构造行业面板数据,得出判断:汇率对FDI流入的影响按照产品外销比例的不同而存在门限效应,高产品外销比例的行业FDI受汇率影响较大。根据理论分析与实证检验结果,本文提出需要对FDI划分类型来分析人民币汇率的影响,并得出汇率水平和汇率波动性都会对FDI流入规模产生影响的结论。
[Abstract]:FDI is the main form of capital inflow in China, which is greatly affected by exchange rate changes. In the new stage of China's economic reform and opening to the outside world, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate on different types of FDI. This paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influence of exchange rate on FDI. Firstly, it analyzes the wealth effect, cost effect, risk effect and real option effect brought by exchange rate from two angles of exchange rate level and exchange rate fluctuation, secondly, analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate on export-oriented and market-oriented FDI in China. Thirdly, from the point of view of enterprise production and foreign exchange, the paper points out that export-oriented FDI is more vulnerable to exchange rate changes than market-oriented FDI; finally, it introduces the product export ratio variable. From the point of view of mathematical economics, this paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate on the scale of FDI inflow by influencing the export of products, and the influence of exchange rate on FDI increases with the increase of FDI. The conclusion is consistent with the four effect theories and compatible with the influence mechanism. The exchange rate affects the export of foreign-funded enterprises and then the capital input of foreign-funded enterprises, that is, FDI inflow. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the effect of exchange rate on FDI inflows. Based on the statistical description of the industrial enterprise data from 1999 to 2007, the author constructs the provincial panel data, and concludes that FDI inflows in the export-oriented eastern provinces are more susceptible to the exchange rate. It is concluded that the influence of exchange rate on FDI inflow has a threshold effect according to the proportion of product export, and FDI in industries with high proportion of product export is greatly affected by exchange rate. According to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper puts forward the need to classify the types of FDI to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate, and draws the conclusion that both exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility will affect the inflow scale of FDI.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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