央行沟通、实际干预对通胀预期的非对称效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 16:25

本文选题：通胀预期 + 央行沟通　；参考：《云南财经大学学报》2017年01期

【摘要】：完善中央银行沟通机制,引导市场预期,提高货币政策有效性是当前深化金融体制改革的重要任务之一。文章采用2001~2014年的季度数据,利用马尔科夫区制转移模型分析了央行沟通和实际干预在管理通胀预期中的作用。研究发现:在经济快速增长区制下,央行沟通和实际干预对通胀预期的引导作用较强;在经济缓慢增长区制下,央行沟通和实际干预对通胀预期的引导作用较弱。但央行沟通的非对称效应较小,而实际干预的非对称效应比较显著。在通胀预期的管理中,价格型工具和数量型工具对通胀预期的引导作用强于央行沟通,价格型工具的引导效果优于数量型工具。实际通货膨胀率,公众通货膨胀预期自身对通胀预期有着显著的影响,是央行管理通胀预期时应关注的重要经济变量。
[Abstract]:It is one of the important tasks to deepen the reform of the financial system to improve the communication mechanism of the central bank, guide the market expectation and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the quarterly data from 2001 to 2014, the paper analyzes the role of central bank communication and actual intervention in the management of inflation expectations by using Markov regional transfer model. The results show that the central bank's communication and actual intervention can guide inflation expectations more strongly under the system of rapid economic growth zone, and the central bank's communication and actual intervention have a weaker guiding effect on inflation expectations under the system of slow economic growth zone. But the asymmetric effect of central bank communication is small, but the asymmetric effect of actual intervention is obvious. In the management of inflation expectations, price tools and quantitative tools are better than the central bank in guiding inflation expectations, and price tools are better than quantitative tools. The real inflation rate, the public inflation expectation itself has the remarkable influence on the inflation expectation, is the important economic variable which the central bank should pay attention to when managing the inflation expectation.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济发展新常态下我国货币政策体系建设研究”(15JZD013)
【分类号】：F822;F832

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