中国资本转移的货币政策调整及风险防范

发布时间：2018-07-08 08:31

本文选题：资本转移 + 门槛模型　；参考：《经济学家》2017年11期

【摘要】：2017年7月,全国金融工作会议将"主动防范化解系统性金融风险"放在了重要位置。在开放经济条件下国内系统性金融风险的重要来源通常是国际资本流动,而货币政策对资本转移的有效应对机制是防范和化解金融风险的政策手段。因此,构建经济增长为门槛的资本转移影响路径模型,在相异经济区间刻画利率和汇率等货币政策措施对资本转移的不同调控作用。本文的实证结果表明,在不同经济发展阶段,汇率和利率对跨境资本流动的影响和作用完全不同。所以,对于资本转移的调控必须实施针对性措施以防范金融风险。不同阶段汇率的同向影响意味着汇率调控应遵循市场化规律和特质,我国应建立适应人民币汇率变动规律的有管理的离散汇率机制。而利率的相逆调控方向说明需要强调利率的导向性指导作用和水平的稳定性控制。
[Abstract]:In July 2017, the National Conference on Financial work put "active prevention and management of systemic financial risks" in an important position. Under the condition of open economy, the important source of domestic systemic financial risk is usually international capital flow, and the effective coping mechanism of monetary policy to capital transfer is the policy means to prevent and resolve financial risk. Therefore, a capital transfer influence path model with economic growth as the threshold is constructed to describe the different regulatory effects of monetary policy measures such as interest rate and exchange rate on capital transfer in different economic regions. The empirical results show that the effects of exchange rate and interest rate on cross-border capital flows are completely different in different stages of economic development. Therefore, the regulation and control of capital transfer must implement targeted measures to prevent financial risks. The codirectional influence of the exchange rate in different stages means that the exchange rate regulation should follow the marketization laws and characteristics, and China should establish a managed discrete exchange rate mechanism adapted to the law of RMB exchange rate change. The reverse direction of interest rate indicates that it is necessary to emphasize the guiding role of interest rate and the stability control of level.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“人民币双边波动新常态下货币政策与汇率政策的冲突与协调研究”(15BJY156) 教育部人文社会科学基金项目“金融业双向开放推动下中国外汇市场压力的聚集与释放及风险预警研究”(16YJA790023) 吉林大学哲学社会科学青年学术领袖培育计划项目“开放型经济新体制与人民币国际化研究”(2015FRLX16)
【分类号】：F822.0

【相似文献】