经常账户可维持性及决定因素分析——基于产业竞争力视角

发布时间：2018-07-26 19:19

【摘要】：分析经常账户可维持性及决定因素外汇储备的来源是否可靠,资本账户开放和货币国际化的基础是否扎实具有重要意义。为此,本文以劳动力成本和劳动生产率作为产业竞争力的代表,实证分析其与经常账户可维持性的关系,发现劳动力成本的下降和劳动生产率的提高会显著促进本国商品和服务净输出,增强经常账户的可维持性。进一步的对比与趋势分析显示,中国的劳动力成本优势在逐年缩小;而劳动生产率虽迅速增长但与美国相比仍存在较大差距;总体来看,中国近年来的劳动力成本增速超过了劳动生产率增速。这也印证了中国人口红利消失,产业结构不合理的现实情况。对此应积极推行供给侧结构性改革,推动制造业结构优化升级,加大研发投入,通过劳动生产率的迅速提高来弥补劳动成本上升对产业竞争力的不利影响,进而实现经常账户盈余的可持续,为资本账户开放和人民币的国际化道路打下坚实基础。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to analyze whether the current account maintainability and the determinants of foreign exchange reserves are reliable, and whether the foundation of capital account opening and currency internationalization is solid. Therefore, this paper takes labor cost and labor productivity as the representative of industrial competitiveness, and empirically analyzes the relationship between labor cost and current account maintainability. It is found that the decrease of labor cost and the increase of labor productivity will significantly promote the net export of goods and services and enhance the maintainability of the current account. Further comparison and trend analysis show that China's labor cost advantage is shrinking year by year, while labor productivity is growing rapidly, but there is still a big gap compared with the United States. China's labor costs have grown faster than labor productivity in recent years. This also confirmed that China's demographic dividend disappeared, unreasonable industrial structure of the reality. In view of this, we should actively carry out supply-side structural reform, promote the optimization and upgrading of manufacturing structure, increase R & D input, and compensate for the adverse effects of rising labor costs on industrial competitiveness through the rapid increase of labor productivity. Thus, the sustainability of current account surplus will lay a solid foundation for the opening of capital account and the internationalization of RMB.
【作者单位】：厦门大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“经济持续增长进程中的通货膨胀控制:量化宽松、最优通胀率和宏观审慎政策研究”(13BJY169),项目负责人:卢宝梅
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】