中国政策性银行转型研究

发布时间：2018-07-30 06:44

【摘要】：政策性银行作为财政投融资机构,是财政政策与货币政策协调框架内政府干预经济的重要手段,是金融形式的特殊财政活动。经过30多年改革开放和高速发展,我国经济发展进入转型升级阶段,政策性银行如何更好地促进经济发展和转型升级,成为我国财政金融领域一个重要课题。本文研究遵循提出问题、分析问题、解决问题的逻辑展开。提出问题之后,首先分析了政策性银行存在的理论基础,探讨了政策性银行产生、发挥作用和转型的理论分析框架。接着,分析了政策性银行转型的初始状态,以及经济新常态和金融结构问题对政策性银行转型的约束。然后,运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)分析比较了政策性银行技术效率,并进一步构建计量经济模型实证分析证明:政策性银行全要素生产率受到了金融结构发展程度、资本形成额增速、经济建设支出占财政支出比重、金融深化程度M2/GDP、GDP增长率等宏观因素和贷款规模、资本充足率、银行技术效率等微观因素显著影响,为转型决策提供了定量分析依据。最后,基于政策性银行初始状态、约束条件和效率实证分析,总结了政策性银行转型动因,提出了转型思路、目标模式和路径。论文分为7章。第1章是绪论。本章从政策性银行转型背景出发,提出了研究主题和研究意义,并界定了相关概念。从财政投融资、政策性银行转型、银行效率等方面梳理前人研究文献,分析了政策性银行转型有关问题前沿成果。然后提出了研究方法、研究内容、研究结构,总结了主要创新与不足。第2章介绍了政策性银行转型的理论框架。本章首先根据经济学、金融学、制度经济学、发展经济学等理论分析了政策性银行存在的理论基础。接着,运用IS-LM模型分析政策性银行在财政政策、货币政策协调框架内的经济效应和作用机理,分析了政策性银行作为财政投融资在金融结构中地位的决定因素。然后,分析了政策性银行转型的理论基础,并提出了政策性银行转型中绩效评价的指标。从而从理论上形成一个政策性银行产生、发挥作用、转型的分析框架。第3章分析中国政策性银行转型的初始条件。本章对政策性银行发展历程、在金融结构中的地位进行了分析,对政策性银行盈利能力、风险管理能力和资本管理能力进行了对比分析,总结了政策性银行转型的初始状态。第4章分析中国政策性银行转型的约束条件。本章首先分析了经济新常态下政策性银行外部经济环境变化;然后分析了中国金融结构与经济结构的适应性,运用戈德史密斯金融结构理论对中国金融结构发展水平进行了研究,并与国际进行了比较研究,分析了中国金融结构存在的问题;最后分析了经济与金融环境对政策性银行转型的约束作用。第5章实证分析中国政策性银行效率及影响因素。本章首先基于数据包络分析方法(DEA)建立了政策性银行技术效率分析模型,对政策性银行技术效率进行了比较分析。接着,构建面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist指数方法分析了政策性银行全要素生产率变化,并以DEA-Malmquist模型计算得出的全要素生产率(TFP)指数作为被解释变量,以影响全要素生产率的宏观和微观因素为解释变量,构建计量经济模型对政策性银行全要素生产率的影响因素进行了实证分析。第6章总结国外政策性银行转型经验。本章在系统梳理国外政策性银行发展和运行情况基础上,分析了国外政策性银行发展趋势,并对德国、日本、韩国代表性政策性银行转型经验进行了剖析和总结。第7章提出中国政策性银行转型目标模式与路径选择。本章首先总结了政策性银行转型动因,并基于政策性银行初始条件、外部经济环境变化、金融结构对转型的影响和银行效率实证分析,提出了政策性银行转型总体思路。然后,结合国际政策性银行转型经验,探讨了政策性银行转型目标。最后,基于转型总体思路和目标,提出我国政策性银行转型可行路径。本文主要研究结论可以概括为三个方面:一是基于戈德史密斯金融结构理论分析我国金融相关系数已达399%,金融结构发展总体程度合理。中国金融领域的问题不是总量问题,而是结构问题,需要政策性银行发挥定量、定向金融工具的作用。二是经济金融环境对策性银行转型的约束作用,主要表现在政治约束、各项改革互补性约束及其与发展模式制约、风险因素制约、竞争环境制约影响而导致转型结果的总和不确定性。三是构建计量经济模型实证分析表明:金融相关系数、M2/GDP对政策性银行全要素生产率提升有负效应,而扩张财政政策对政策性银行信贷投放与效率提升有促进作用。从宏观经济看,政策性银行逆周期调节作用,主要表现为逆投资周期调节作用,而不是逆GDP增长周期。在投资下滑期,资本形成额增速下降引致政策性银行全要素生产率提升。从微观因素看,扩大贷款规模和提升银行管理水平对提升政策性银行全要素生产率都有正效应。本文在分析中国实际和国际经验基础上,提出的主要政策建议:一是在转型总体思路上,政策性银行转型应以提升全要素生产率为核心,并要符合国家经济发展阶段和国家战略的特殊性要求。政策性银行转型要从引领、补充整个国家金融产业的角度出发,体现创新驱动,发挥开发市场、建设市场的作用。二是在转型目标模式上,从机构功能和业务分类的政策性、经营目标明确的市场化运作机制、建立有协同优势的综合化经营体系、在金融结构中发挥引领性补充作用方面对转型目标进行了分析。三是探讨了政策性银行转型路径,从发展空间制约下的职能转型、适度规模条件下推进综合经营、赋予政策性银行特许价值权、明确政府与政策性银行的关系、明确政策性银行与市场的关系五个方面进行了探讨。
[Abstract]:As a financial investment and financing institution, policy bank is an important means to intervene the economy in the framework of fiscal policy and monetary policy. It is a special financial activity in the form of finance. After 30 years of reform and opening up and rapid development, China's economic development has entered the stage of transformation and upgrading, and how the policy bank can better promote economic development and transfer. Type upgrading has become an important issue in the financial and financial field of our country. This paper studies the logical expansion of problems, analyses and solve problems. After putting forward the questions, this paper first analyzes the theoretical basis of the existence of policy banks, probes into the theoretical analysis framework for the production of policy banks, and gives play to the use and transformation of the policies. Then, the policy is analyzed. The initial state of the transformation of sex banks and the constraints of the new economic normal and financial structure on the transformation of the policy banks. Then, using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) analysis and comparison of the technical efficiency of the policy based banks, and further constructing the econometric model, the empirical analysis shows that the total factor productivity of the policy bank is subject to the financial knot. The development degree, the growth rate of capital formation, the expenditure of economic construction in the proportion of financial expenditure, the macro factors such as the financial deepening degree M2/GDP, the GDP growth rate, the loan scale, the capital adequacy ratio, the bank technical efficiency and so on, provide the quantitative analysis basis for the transformation decision. Finally, the constraints are based on the initial state of the policy bank. This chapter is divided into 7 chapters. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter, starting from the background of the transition of policy banks, puts forward the research theme and research significance, and defines the relevant concepts. The second chapter introduces the theoretical framework of the transformation of policy based banks. This chapter first is based on economics, finance, institutional economics, and development economics. The theoretical basis of the existence of policy banks is analyzed. Then, the IS-LM model is used to analyze the economic effect and mechanism of policy banks in the framework of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination, and the determinants of the position of policy banks as financial investment and financing in the financial structure are analyzed. Then, the transformation of policy banks is analyzed. The theoretical basis, and put forward the index of performance evaluation in the policy oriented bank transformation, thus form a policy bank to produce, play the role, the analysis frame of the transformation in theory. The third chapter analyses the initial conditions of the transformation of China's policy bank. The policy banks' profitability, risk management ability and capital management ability are compared and analyzed, and the initial state of policy based banking transformation is summarized. The fourth chapter analyzes the constraints of China's policy based banking transformation. The adaptability of structure and economic structure, using Goldman Smith's financial structure theory to study the development level of China's financial structure, and compared with the international research, analyzed the problems of China's financial structure, and finally analyzed the constraints of the economic and financial environment on the transformation of the policy bank. The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis. In this chapter, based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA), this chapter establishes a policy based bank technical efficiency analysis model, and compares the technical efficiency of the policy bank. Then, the panel data is constructed and the DEA-Malmquist index method is used to analyze the total factor productivity changes of the policy banks. The total factor productivity (TFP) index calculated by the DEA-Malmquist model is interpreted as the explanatory variable and the macro and micro factors that affect the total factor productivity are interpreted as the explanatory variables. The empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the total factor productivity of the policy bank is constructed by the econometric model. The sixth chapter summarizes the experience of foreign policy based banking transformation. On the basis of systematically combing the development and operation of foreign policy banks, this chapter analyzes the development trend of foreign policy banks and analyzes and summarizes the transformation experience of the representative policy banks in Germany, Japan and Korea. The seventh chapter puts forward the model and path selection of China's policy oriented bank transformation. The reasons for the transformation of sex banks are based on the initial conditions of the policy based banks, the changes in the external economic environment, the impact of the financial structure on the transformation and the empirical analysis of the efficiency of the banks. The overall thinking of the policy based banking transformation is put forward. Then, the objective of the policy based banking transformation is discussed with the transition experience of the international policy banks. Finally, the overall thinking of the transformation is based on the overall transformation of the bank. The main conclusions of this paper can be summed up in three aspects: first, based on the theory of Goldman Smith's financial structure, the financial correlation coefficient of China has reached 399%, the overall development of the financial structure is reasonable. The problem of China's financial domain is not the total amount, but the structural problem. It is necessary for policy banks to play the role of quantitative and directional financial instruments. Two is the constraint effect of the transformation of the economic and financial environment, mainly in the political constraints, the complementarity of various reforms and the constraints of the development model, the constraints of the risk factors and the influence of the competitive environment, which lead to the total uncertainty of the transformation results. Three The empirical analysis of the econometric model shows that the financial correlation coefficient, M2/GDP has a negative effect on the promotion of the total factor productivity of policy banks, and the expansion of fiscal policy has a promoting effect on the policy banks' credit delivery and efficiency promotion. From the macro economy, the reverse cycle regulation of policy banks is mainly reflected in the regulation of reverse investment cycle. In the period of the decline of investment, the decline in the amount of capital formation leads to the promotion of total factor productivity of policy banks. From the microcosmic perspective, the expansion of the loan scale and the improvement of the management level of the banks have positive effects on promoting the total factor productivity of policy banks. This paper analyzes the practical and international empirical basis of China in this paper. The main policy suggestions are as follows: first, in the overall thinking of transformation, the transformation of policy banks should be based on promoting total factor productivity as the core, and in line with the special requirements of the national economic development stage and national strategy. The two is to develop the market and the role of the market. In the transformation target model, the policy of institutional function and business classification, the clear operation mechanism of the market-oriented operation target, the establishment of a comprehensive management system with synergistic advantages, the analysis of the transformation goal in the aspect of leading supplementary role in the financial structure. Three is the discussion of the government. The transformation path of the policy bank, from the function transformation under the restriction of the development space, the promotion of the comprehensive management under the moderate scale, the franchise value right of the policy bank, the relationship between the government and the policy bank, and the five aspects of the relationship between the policy bank and the market.
【学位授予单位】：中国财政科学研究院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.31

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