金融稳定与货币政策多目标协调性研究——基于2005-2015年月度数据
发布时间：2018-07-31 15:27
【摘要】：金融稳定是货币政策重要目标之一,如何科学测度金融稳定并探寻其与货币政策其他目标是否存在协调和协调共存最优区间有着重要的意义.选取2005.7-2015.6年数据从金融系统平稳运行和金融系统风险承受能力两个方面构建适合我国国情的金融稳定指标评价体系进行测度,揭示我国金融稳定先降后升的历史规律.并以金融稳定指数为门限变量,构建货币政策多目标门限模型,通过门限效应分析发现我国金融稳定与货币政策其他目标存在可协调性,金融稳定指数的最优目标区间为[7.23‰,8.57‰].为完善我国宏观调控政策,可将金融稳定纳入到当前的货币政策调控目标体系中,加强货币政策和宏观审慎政策的联合,避免系统性金融风险积累引发的社会经济异常波动.
[Abstract]:Financial stability is one of the important objectives of monetary policy. It is of great significance to measure financial stability scientifically and to find out whether there is an optimal range of coordination and coexistence between financial stability and other objectives of monetary policy. The data of 2005.7-2015.6 are selected to construct a financial stability index evaluation system suitable for China's national conditions from two aspects: the smooth operation of the financial system and the risk bearing capacity of the financial system, so as to reveal the historical law of financial stability falling first and then rising. Taking the financial stability index as the threshold variable, this paper constructs a multi-objective threshold model of monetary policy, and finds out that the financial stability of our country can be coordinated with other objectives of monetary policy through the threshold effect analysis. The optimal target range of the financial stability index is [7.23 鈥，
本文编号：2156006
[Abstract]:Financial stability is one of the important objectives of monetary policy. It is of great significance to measure financial stability scientifically and to find out whether there is an optimal range of coordination and coexistence between financial stability and other objectives of monetary policy. The data of 2005.7-2015.6 are selected to construct a financial stability index evaluation system suitable for China's national conditions from two aspects: the smooth operation of the financial system and the risk bearing capacity of the financial system, so as to reveal the historical law of financial stability falling first and then rising. Taking the financial stability index as the threshold variable, this paper constructs a multi-objective threshold model of monetary policy, and finds out that the financial stability of our country can be coordinated with other objectives of monetary policy through the threshold effect analysis. The optimal target range of the financial stability index is [7.23 鈥，
本文编号：2156006
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