山西省储蓄投资转化效率研究
发布时间：2018-07-31 20:45
【摘要】：长期以来,山西省“一煤独大”的局面难以改变,“资源依赖型”的经济使得山西省的经济发展道路越来越窄,经济结构严重失调、生态环境遭到破坏、各种安全事故频发等各种问题逐渐暴漏,经济发展严重下滑,2015年,山西省的国内生产总值位列全国倒数第八,但是山西省的储蓄余额以及储蓄率却比较高,截至2015年底,山西省的储蓄余额已经达到了5631.79亿元人民币,人均储蓄为4178.64元,改革开放以来,山西省的储蓄率平均每年为46%,并且储蓄余额以年均15%的速度在不断增长,为经济的发展提供了充足的资金来源,为山西省资本形成率的提高奠定了基础。与储蓄相比,投资额和投资率却相对较低,本文用社会融资规模指标衡量山西省的投资及投资率概况,该指标数据表明,截至2015年年底,山西省的社会融资规模为3048亿元,投资率仅为23.88%,近年来,煤炭经济逐渐衰落,加上山西省处于内陆省份,投资项目较沿海地区要少得多,又由于居民的消费水平较低,收入差距大等间接原因,使得山西省储蓄和投资之间的差额变大,转化效率低。2010年,山西省“综改试验区”的设立,为山西省的经济发展带来了良好的机遇,因此,山西省要发挥好示范作用,调整产业结构,培育新兴产业发展,借助“综改区”的政治条件,加快产业转型的步伐,培育新的投资热点的形成,为其他资源型地区的经济发展提供一定的发展经验。本文以此为背景,首先对储蓄和投资的相关理论进行综述,包括储蓄和投资的概念、转化机制以及不同经济学派的理论观点。其次,研究储蓄-投资的时间序列数据,并通过计算储蓄率、储蓄增长率、投资率等指标对山西省储蓄和投资的概况进行介绍,并在此基础上,进一步计算储蓄缺口和储蓄投资转化率,通过这两个指标对储蓄-投资的转化现状进行分析,得出二者转化率较低的结论。再次,通过平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型对储蓄-投资的相关关系进行实证分析,同时,通过此实证分析方法研究山西省投资的增加对经济增长的影响。实证分析结果表明,第一,山西省储蓄和投资存在长期均衡的关系,二者的相关系数为0.46。第二,短期的误差修正模型对二者的长期均衡关系有所修正,并且短期内,储蓄每增加一个单位,投资增加0.003843个单位,储蓄和投资互为对方的格兰杰原因,这个结论为提高储蓄-投资转化率提供了实证基础,也是制定宏观经济政策的基础。第三,投资和经济增长的三个度量指标之间存在正相关关系,这三个指标分别为人均GDP、人均消费、人均资本,储蓄和三者的相关系数分别为:0.7861、0.8547、0.7725,说明投资的增加会促进经济的增长,因而,要促进储蓄向投资的高效率转化,完善二者的转化机制。本文的创新点就在于研究范围的特殊性,本文研究储蓄-投资的区域转化问题,实用性和可操作性较强,而现有的文献主要是以全国或者某一地区的储蓄投资状况为研究背景,研究结论不能笼统地应用到某个省份的实际操作中。文章的不足之处就是由于数据资料的有限性,有些数据指标使用其他的指标替代,可能会产生一定的误差,影响研究结果的准确性。通过本文的研究,主要解决一下几个问题:第一:研究山西省储蓄-投资转化的效率。第二:探索阻碍山西省储蓄向投资转化的原因。第三,为提高储蓄-投资转化效率提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the situation of "one coal independence big" in Shanxi is difficult to change. The economy of "resource dependent" economy makes the economic development road of Shanxi province more and more narrow, the economic structure is seriously maladjusted, the ecological environment is destroyed, various kinds of safety accidents have been leaked gradually, the economic development has fallen seriously. In 2015, the domestic birth of Shanxi Province The total output value ranks the eighth in the country, but the savings balance and saving rate of Shanxi province are relatively high. By the end of 2015, the savings balance in Shanxi has reached 563 billion 179 million yuan, and the per capita savings is 4178.64 yuan. Since the reform and opening up, the savings rate of Shanxi province is 46% per year, and the savings balance is at an annual rate of 15%. Continuous growth has provided a sufficient source of capital for the development of the economy and laid the foundation for the increase in the rate of capital formation in Shanxi province. Compared with savings, the investment and investment rate are relatively low. This paper uses the social financing scale to measure the investment and investment rate in Shanxi province. The index data show that by the end of 2015, Shanxi province. The scale of the social financing is 304 billion 800 million yuan and the investment rate is only 23.88%. In recent years, the coal economy has gradually declined, and the Shanxi province is in the inland province. The investment projects are much less than the coastal areas, and the indirect reasons such as the low consumption level of the residents and the big income gap make the difference between the savings and investment in Shanxi become larger and the conversion efficiency is low. In 2010, the establishment of the "comprehensive reform test area" in Shanxi province has brought good opportunities for the economic development of Shanxi province. Therefore, Shanxi province should play a good demonstration role, adjust the industrial structure, cultivate the development of new industry, speed up the pace of industrial transformation and cultivate new investment hot spots by means of the political conditions of the "comprehensive reform zone", and cultivate other resources for other resources. Based on this, this paper first summarizes the related theories of savings and investment, including the concept of savings and investment, the transformation mechanism and the theoretical views of different economic schools. Secondly, it studies the time sequence data of savings and investment, and calculates savings rate and savings growth rate by calculating the savings and investment. The investment rate and other indexes are introduced to the general situation of savings and investment in Shanxi province. On this basis, the savings gap and the conversion rate of savings investment are further calculated. Through these two indicators, the transformation of savings and investment is analyzed, and the conclusions of the low conversion rate of the two are obtained. Again, through the stability test, cointegration test, error correction model The relationship between savings and investment is empirically analyzed, and the effect of the increase of investment in Shanxi Province on economic growth is studied by this empirical analysis. The results of empirical analysis show that, first, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between savings and investment in Shanxi Province, the relative number of the two is 0.46. second, and the short-term error correction model is two. The long-term equilibrium relationship has been revised, and in the short term, each additional unit of savings, 0.003843 units of investment, and the Grainger reason for saving and investment each other, this conclusion provides an empirical basis for raising savings investment conversion rate and also the basis for formulating macroeconomic policies. Third, three degrees of investment and economic growth. There is a positive correlation between the quantitative indicators. These three indexes are GDP per capita, per capita consumption, per capita capital, savings and the three factors are respectively: 0.7861,0.8547,0.7725, which indicates that the increase of investment will promote economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the efficient transformation of savings to investment and improve the transformation mechanism of the two. The point lies in the particularity of the scope of the study. This paper studies the problem of regional transformation of savings and investment, which is more practical and operable. The existing literature is mainly based on the situation of savings and investment in a country or a certain region, and the conclusions can not be applied to the actual operation of a province in general. Due to the limited data data, some data indicators use other indicators instead, may produce certain errors and affect the accuracy of the research results. Through this study, the main solution is to solve several problems: First: To study the efficiency of Shanxi savings and investment transformation. Second: explore the transformation of Shanxi savings into investment. Reasons third. Put forward policy suggestions to improve the efficiency of savings investment transformation.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.22
[Abstract]:For a long time, the situation of "one coal independence big" in Shanxi is difficult to change. The economy of "resource dependent" economy makes the economic development road of Shanxi province more and more narrow, the economic structure is seriously maladjusted, the ecological environment is destroyed, various kinds of safety accidents have been leaked gradually, the economic development has fallen seriously. In 2015, the domestic birth of Shanxi Province The total output value ranks the eighth in the country, but the savings balance and saving rate of Shanxi province are relatively high. By the end of 2015, the savings balance in Shanxi has reached 563 billion 179 million yuan, and the per capita savings is 4178.64 yuan. Since the reform and opening up, the savings rate of Shanxi province is 46% per year, and the savings balance is at an annual rate of 15%. Continuous growth has provided a sufficient source of capital for the development of the economy and laid the foundation for the increase in the rate of capital formation in Shanxi province. Compared with savings, the investment and investment rate are relatively low. This paper uses the social financing scale to measure the investment and investment rate in Shanxi province. The index data show that by the end of 2015, Shanxi province. The scale of the social financing is 304 billion 800 million yuan and the investment rate is only 23.88%. In recent years, the coal economy has gradually declined, and the Shanxi province is in the inland province. The investment projects are much less than the coastal areas, and the indirect reasons such as the low consumption level of the residents and the big income gap make the difference between the savings and investment in Shanxi become larger and the conversion efficiency is low. In 2010, the establishment of the "comprehensive reform test area" in Shanxi province has brought good opportunities for the economic development of Shanxi province. Therefore, Shanxi province should play a good demonstration role, adjust the industrial structure, cultivate the development of new industry, speed up the pace of industrial transformation and cultivate new investment hot spots by means of the political conditions of the "comprehensive reform zone", and cultivate other resources for other resources. Based on this, this paper first summarizes the related theories of savings and investment, including the concept of savings and investment, the transformation mechanism and the theoretical views of different economic schools. Secondly, it studies the time sequence data of savings and investment, and calculates savings rate and savings growth rate by calculating the savings and investment. The investment rate and other indexes are introduced to the general situation of savings and investment in Shanxi province. On this basis, the savings gap and the conversion rate of savings investment are further calculated. Through these two indicators, the transformation of savings and investment is analyzed, and the conclusions of the low conversion rate of the two are obtained. Again, through the stability test, cointegration test, error correction model The relationship between savings and investment is empirically analyzed, and the effect of the increase of investment in Shanxi Province on economic growth is studied by this empirical analysis. The results of empirical analysis show that, first, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between savings and investment in Shanxi Province, the relative number of the two is 0.46. second, and the short-term error correction model is two. The long-term equilibrium relationship has been revised, and in the short term, each additional unit of savings, 0.003843 units of investment, and the Grainger reason for saving and investment each other, this conclusion provides an empirical basis for raising savings investment conversion rate and also the basis for formulating macroeconomic policies. Third, three degrees of investment and economic growth. There is a positive correlation between the quantitative indicators. These three indexes are GDP per capita, per capita consumption, per capita capital, savings and the three factors are respectively: 0.7861,0.8547,0.7725, which indicates that the increase of investment will promote economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the efficient transformation of savings to investment and improve the transformation mechanism of the two. The point lies in the particularity of the scope of the study. This paper studies the problem of regional transformation of savings and investment, which is more practical and operable. The existing literature is mainly based on the situation of savings and investment in a country or a certain region, and the conclusions can not be applied to the actual operation of a province in general. Due to the limited data data, some data indicators use other indicators instead, may produce certain errors and affect the accuracy of the research results. Through this study, the main solution is to solve several problems: First: To study the efficiency of Shanxi savings and investment transformation. Second: explore the transformation of Shanxi savings into investment. Reasons third. Put forward policy suggestions to improve the efficiency of savings investment transformation.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.22
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