“沪港通”跨境资本流动及风险防范
发布时间：2018-08-11 20:48
【摘要】：本文通过整理沪港通跨境资金清算机制,从国际收支和结算参与者资产负债表变化的视角,考察了沪港通跨境资金清算带来的资本外流,发现沪港通带来的跨境资本流动不会影响外汇储备,资本的流入和流出只会带来离岸人民币存量的增加或者减少。本文经过分析后认为,沪港通最主要的政策目的是通过建立离岸人民币资产池,利用港股通资金外流扩大离岸人民币存量,再利用沪股通形成离岸人民币回流机制,以此促进人民币国际化,所以沪港通带来的资本外流某种意义上是有积极意义的。本文通过格兰杰因果关系检验的方法考察沪港通交易流量与两地市场股指变化率之间的关系,并用单因素方差分析的方法考察沪股通交易流量与人民币兑港币离在岸汇差之间的关系。经过对数据处理结果的分析,本文发现境内投资者主要出于对境外资产配置的需求而投资港股通,境外投资者投资沪股通则主要是出于获取资本利得的目的。境内投资者对港股通交易持谨慎态度,在人民币汇率预期波动较大的情况下,同时减少了港股通的买入和卖出量。目前来看,在沪港通规模相对较小的情况下,其制度设计规避了境外资金对境内A股市场的投机冲击,且国内银行体系完全可以应对沪港通资金清算带来的银行体系流动性问题。但随着离岸人民币存量的不断扩大,需要关注过剩的离岸人民币回流带来的风险,过剩的离岸人民币存量将会转变为投机资金,以各种合法、非法渠道流回境内,因为其“人民币”身份而难以监管,可能对中国境内的金融体系造成伤害,甚至危害实体经济的健康发展。对此,应允许境内企业发行离岸人民币债券,鼓励跨境贸易结算当中使用离岸人民币,对离岸人民币开放更多的二级市场,促进离岸人民币的使用。
[Abstract]:This paper examines the capital outflow from the balance of payments and balance sheet changes of the participants in the cross-border fund clearing mechanism of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect from the perspective of balance sheet changes. It is found that the cross-border capital flow brought by the Stock Connect of Shanghai and Hong Kong will not affect foreign exchange reserves, and the inflow and outflow of capital will only increase or decrease the stock of offshore RMB. After the analysis, this paper thinks that the main policy aim of the Stock Connect is to expand the offshore RMB stock by establishing the offshore RMB asset pool, to use the Hong Kong stock exchange capital outflow to expand the offshore RMB stock, and then to use the Shanghai Stock Connect to form the offshore RMB reflux mechanism. In order to promote the internationalization of the RMB, the capital outflow brought by the Stock Connect is positive in a sense. In this paper, the Granger causality test is used to investigate the relationship between the Shanghai Stock Connect transaction flow and the change rate of stock index in both markets. The single factor analysis of variance is used to study the relationship between the flow of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the difference between RMB and Hong Kong dollar. Through the analysis of the data processing results, it is found that domestic investors mainly invest in Hong Kong stocks for the purpose of overseas asset allocation, and foreign investors invest in Shanghai stocks mainly for the purpose of obtaining capital gains. Domestic investors are wary of trading stocks in Hong Kong, while reducing buying and selling at the same time as the renminbi is expected to fluctuate. At present, under the relatively small scale of the Stock Connect between Shanghai and Hong Kong, its system is designed to avoid the speculative impact of foreign funds on the domestic A-share market. And the domestic banking system can fully deal with the liquidity of the banking system caused by the liquidation of Shanghai Stock Connect. However, as the stock of offshore renminbi continues to expand, attention needs to be paid to the risks brought about by the return of excess offshore renminbi. The excess stock of offshore renminbi will be converted into speculative funds and be diverted back to China through various legal and illegal channels. Because of its "yuan" status and difficult to regulate, may harm the financial system in China, or even the healthy development of the real economy. In this regard, domestic enterprises should be allowed to issue offshore renminbi bonds, encourage the use of offshore renminbi in cross-border trade settlement, open more secondary markets to offshore renminbi, and promote the use of offshore renminbi.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6
[Abstract]:This paper examines the capital outflow from the balance of payments and balance sheet changes of the participants in the cross-border fund clearing mechanism of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect from the perspective of balance sheet changes. It is found that the cross-border capital flow brought by the Stock Connect of Shanghai and Hong Kong will not affect foreign exchange reserves, and the inflow and outflow of capital will only increase or decrease the stock of offshore RMB. After the analysis, this paper thinks that the main policy aim of the Stock Connect is to expand the offshore RMB stock by establishing the offshore RMB asset pool, to use the Hong Kong stock exchange capital outflow to expand the offshore RMB stock, and then to use the Shanghai Stock Connect to form the offshore RMB reflux mechanism. In order to promote the internationalization of the RMB, the capital outflow brought by the Stock Connect is positive in a sense. In this paper, the Granger causality test is used to investigate the relationship between the Shanghai Stock Connect transaction flow and the change rate of stock index in both markets. The single factor analysis of variance is used to study the relationship between the flow of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the difference between RMB and Hong Kong dollar. Through the analysis of the data processing results, it is found that domestic investors mainly invest in Hong Kong stocks for the purpose of overseas asset allocation, and foreign investors invest in Shanghai stocks mainly for the purpose of obtaining capital gains. Domestic investors are wary of trading stocks in Hong Kong, while reducing buying and selling at the same time as the renminbi is expected to fluctuate. At present, under the relatively small scale of the Stock Connect between Shanghai and Hong Kong, its system is designed to avoid the speculative impact of foreign funds on the domestic A-share market. And the domestic banking system can fully deal with the liquidity of the banking system caused by the liquidation of Shanghai Stock Connect. However, as the stock of offshore renminbi continues to expand, attention needs to be paid to the risks brought about by the return of excess offshore renminbi. The excess stock of offshore renminbi will be converted into speculative funds and be diverted back to China through various legal and illegal channels. Because of its "yuan" status and difficult to regulate, may harm the financial system in China, or even the healthy development of the real economy. In this regard, domestic enterprises should be allowed to issue offshore renminbi bonds, encourage the use of offshore renminbi in cross-border trade settlement, open more secondary markets to offshore renminbi, and promote the use of offshore renminbi.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 甄君;李涵;刘桂华;;黑龙江省跨境资本流动特点及政策建议[J];黑龙江金融;2012年06期
2 赵蓓文;;基于国际经验的中国跨境资本流动监测预警体系设计[J];上海金融;2007年05期
3 王宇;姚均芳;;依法加强对跨境资本流动监管[J];经济研究参考;2008年66期
4 沈庆R，
本文编号：2178198
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/huobiyinxinglunwen/2178198.html
