我国通胀预期的动态特征及其政策启示

发布时间：2018-08-12 10:34

【摘要】：通胀预期是影响当前和未来通货膨胀形成的主导因素之一,但我国通胀预期具有较大波动性,直接影响了通胀管理政策的实施效果。通过ARMA-GARCH模型对我国通胀冲击和通胀预期的动态特征进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)理性预期和通胀惯性是独立影响通胀的因素,并且通货膨胀扰动具有惯性、周期性和周期滞后性特征;(2)通胀预期冲击具有惯性特征,且实际通胀冲击会影响通胀预期稳定性;(3)通胀波动对通胀预期稳定性存在非对称影响,其对负向实际通胀波动更加敏感。上述分析结果的通胀管理政策启示是,政府只能通过预期引导方式实现通胀目标,但需要采取谨慎的通胀管理政策。
[Abstract]:Inflation expectation is one of the leading factors influencing the formation of current and future inflation, but inflation expectation in China has great volatility, which directly affects the effect of the implementation of inflation management policy. The dynamic characteristics of inflation shock and inflation expectation in China are analyzed by ARMA-GARCH model. The results show that: (1) rational expectation and inflation inertia are independent factors influencing inflation, and inflation disturbance has inertia. The characteristics of periodicity and period lag; (2) inflation expectation shock has inertia characteristic, and actual inflation shock will affect inflation expectation stability; (3) inflation fluctuation has asymmetric influence on inflation expectation stability. It is more sensitive to negative real inflation volatility. The implication of this analysis of inflation management policy is that the government can only achieve its inflation target through expected guidance, but it needs to adopt prudent inflation management policies.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;安徽大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“建构基于生态文明建设的公共财政体制研究”(15ZDB158);国家社会科学基金重大项目“城乡环境基本公共服务非均等程度评估及均等化路径研究”(11&ZD041);国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国通货膨胀动态特征、预期冲击与最优监测目标研究”(12BJL024)
【分类号】：F822.5

【相似文献】