汇率因素在中国对东盟直接投资中的作用——理论与实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-30 14:59
【摘要】：东盟国家是中国企业对外直接投资的主要目的地。为了更好地研究汇率如何影响中国对东盟的直接投资,构建了一个理论模型。研究结论为:人民币升值会增加中国对东盟的直接投资,汇率波动幅度的增大会阻碍中国对东盟的直接投资,预期汇率升值不利于市场寻求型对外直接投资。选取了东盟国家2005—2014年相关数据,运用固定效应模型和差分GMM动态面板模型进行回归分析,实证结果显示:汇率水平、预期汇率因素与理论模型预测符号一致且显著,而汇率波动的影响与模型预测一致但并不显著。
[Abstract]:ASEAN countries are the main destinations for Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign direct investment (OFDI). In order to better study how the exchange rate affects China's direct investment in ASEAN, a theoretical model is constructed. The conclusions are as follows: the appreciation of RMB will increase China's direct investment in ASEAN, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation will hinder China's direct investment in ASEAN, and the expected appreciation of exchange rate will be unfavorable to market seeking foreign direct investment. Using the fixed effect model and the differential GMM dynamic panel model to analyze the relevant data of ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2014, the empirical results show that the level of exchange rate, the factor of expected exchange rate is consistent with the prediction symbol of theoretical model and is significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuations is consistent with the model forecast, but not significant.
【作者单位】： 北京外国语大学国际商学院;中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研专项经费资助项目(2009JJ029) 北京外国语大学基本科研业务费专项资金资助 北京市社会科学基金项目(15JGB059)
【分类号】：F832.6
[Abstract]:ASEAN countries are the main destinations for Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign direct investment (OFDI). In order to better study how the exchange rate affects China's direct investment in ASEAN, a theoretical model is constructed. The conclusions are as follows: the appreciation of RMB will increase China's direct investment in ASEAN, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation will hinder China's direct investment in ASEAN, and the expected appreciation of exchange rate will be unfavorable to market seeking foreign direct investment. Using the fixed effect model and the differential GMM dynamic panel model to analyze the relevant data of ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2014, the empirical results show that the level of exchange rate, the factor of expected exchange rate is consistent with the prediction symbol of theoretical model and is significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuations is consistent with the model forecast, but not significant.
【作者单位】： 北京外国语大学国际商学院;中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研专项经费资助项目(2009JJ029) 北京外国语大学基本科研业务费专项资金资助 北京市社会科学基金项目(15JGB059)
【分类号】：F832.6
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前6条
1 项义军;崔o坻，
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