IPO盈余管理对于定价泡沫及后续经营业绩的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-31 13:57

【摘要】：我国股票市场的效率较低。上市首日收盘价大幅高出其发行定价(IPO抑价),发行人并不存在低价发行动机。投资者异质信念、IPO制度约束(如卖空约束和准入制度等)、发行人的盈余管理和媒体管理、中介机构未能勤勉尽责、以及宏观经济因素等,都可能导致IPO新股定价向上偏离其内在价值(Intrinsic Value),从而产生定价泡沫。本文主要关注其中的IPO前盈余管理因素。我们从盈余信息的有用性出发,分析了IPO盈余管理的动因和机会。为了满足上市条件、抬高发行定价,发行人很可能实施应计或者真实盈余管理。然而,这种机会主义行为只能美化短期业绩(催生定价泡沫),但并不利于企业的长期发展(导致业绩下滑)。由此,我们主要关注发行前盈余管理对于定价泡沫、及其对于后续经营业绩的影响。本文的研究样本为2007年初到2014年底间在A股IPO的1191家非金融企业。分别运用修正Jones模型和真实盈余管理模型,测度了应计盈余管理(DA)与真实盈余管理(RM)。采用IPO定价与其内在价值(以RIV模型测算)的偏离率指标衡量了定价泡沫。对于业绩变化,则运用了财务指标如ROA、ROE、OPA。经过实证检验,得出以下结论:(1)发行定价(OP)显著高于其内在价值(IV),存在定价泡沫,且该现象在创业板上更为显著;(2)IPO前正向的盈余管理行为在A股市场中普遍存在;(3)IPO后,经营业绩下滑明显,且创业板公司更加严重;(4)IPO盈余管理助推了定价泡沫的产生,应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理均与定价泡沫显著正相关;(5)IPO前的盈余管理同后续业绩下滑显著负相关。本文的创新点主要有:(1)采用股票内在价值衡量IPO定价的合理性,而非IPO抑价研究中的上市首日收盘价;(2)研究盈余管理与定价泡沫的关系,而非盈余管理与定价的关系;(3)采用基于IPO后真实数据的剩余收益模型(RIV)测算内在价值;(4)结合使用应计与真实盈余管理模型,测度IPO前的盈余管理程度。
[Abstract]:China's stock market is inefficient. The closing price on the first day of listing is much higher than its IPO underpricing, and the issuer has no motive to issue at a low price. This paper focuses on the pre-IPO earnings management factors. We analyze the motivation and opportunity of earnings management in IPO from the usefulness of earnings information. In order to meet the listing conditions and raise the issue price, the issuer is very concerned. However, this kind of opportunistic behavior can only beautify the short-term performance (causing pricing bubbles), but it is not conducive to the long-term development of enterprises (leading to performance decline). Therefore, we mainly focus on the pre-issuance earnings management for pricing bubbles, and its impact on subsequent operating performance. This paper is a study of 1911 non-financial firms in A-share IPOs from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2014. Using the modified Jones model and the real earnings management model, we measure the accrued earnings management (DA) and the real earnings management (RM). We measure the pricing bubble by the deviation rate between IPO pricing and its intrinsic value (measured by RIV model). Using financial indicators such as ROA, ROE, OPA. Through empirical test, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) IPO pricing (OP) is significantly higher than its intrinsic value (IV), there is a pricing bubble, and the phenomenon is more significant in the GEM; (2) positive earnings management before IPO is widespread in the A-share market; (3) after IPO, operating performance declines significantly, and GEM public sector. The company is more serious; (4) IPO earnings management promotes the emergence of pricing bubbles, accrued earnings management and real earnings management are significantly positively correlated with pricing bubbles; (5) earnings management before IPO is significantly negatively correlated with subsequent performance decline. The first day closing price in the study; (2) the relationship between earnings management and pricing bubbles, not between earnings management and pricing; (3) the residual income model (RIV) based on real data after IPO is used to measure the intrinsic value; (4) the earnings management degree before IPO is measured by using the accrual and real earnings management model.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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