我国对外直接投资影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-09-12 12:54

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来,不管是面对动荡多变的国际投资环境,还是席卷全球的金融危机,我国对外直接投资都能稳如泰山一样保持稳定的增长速度。我国政府从1979年提出“出国办企业”,到2015年积极推进“一带一路”建设,不断完善“走出去”工作体系,加速对外直接投资步伐。三十多年来,为了让跨国企业能够真正地走向世界,我国政府不断提出对外直接投资创新性政策。而今,面对经济全球化新形势,继续探索我国对外投资新道路,创造对外投资新高度,保持对外直接投资稳定增长将成为我们的必修课。因此,全面分析对外直接投资特点及其重要影响因素,对我国对外直接投资进一步发展具有重大意义。本文在阅读大量投资分析理论后,首先对国内外学者对外直接投资影响因素的研究进行综合阐述,并介绍对外直接投资影响因素相关理论。其次运用描述统计方法对我国对外直接投资现状及其发展进行描述分析,并指出当前我国在对外直接投资方面存在的问题。再次结合我国对外直接投资的特点,明确了我国对外直接投资影响因素,并进行梳理,为实证分析部分提供依据。然后在实证分析部分以国内外学者的相关研究为基础,结合对外投资相关理论,首先运用SPSS统计分析软件对我国1996-2015年的时间序列数据进行多元回归分析,得出我国经济发展水平与对外直接投资呈正相关,居民消费价格指数、人民币汇率和商品出口对对外直接投资的影响均不显著;其次运用Eviews统计分析软件对我国直接投资较多的22个国家(地区)2004-2014年的数据进行面板数据分析,得出我国对外直接投资受东道国居民消费价格指数、外汇储备、劳动力总数、政府支出占GDP的比例以及我国对东道国已有的投资存量五个因素的影响显著,而东道国人均GDP、对外直接投资净流入占GDP百分比对我国对外直接投资的影响不明显。最后根据我国对外直接投资的发展现状及实证分析得出的相关结论,分别从政府层面和企业层面提出相关政策建议,以进一步优化我国对外直接投资结构,从而使我国企业可以更好地“走出去”。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, no matter in the face of the volatile international investment environment or the global financial crisis, China's foreign direct investment (FDI) can maintain a stable growth rate like Taishan. From 1979, the Chinese government put forward "going abroad to set up enterprises", and by 2015, it has actively promoted the construction of "Belt and Road", continuously improved the "going out" work system, and accelerated the pace of foreign direct investment. For more than 30 years, in order to enable multinational enterprises to truly go to the world, our government has constantly put forward innovative policies of foreign direct investment (OFDI). Now, in the face of the new situation of economic globalization, it will be our compulsory course to continue to explore the new way of China's foreign investment, to create a new height of foreign investment and to maintain the steady growth of foreign direct investment. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the characteristics of foreign direct investment and its important influencing factors for the further development of China's foreign direct investment. After reading a large number of investment analysis theories, this paper first comprehensively expounds the research on the influencing factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) at home and abroad, and introduces the relevant theories of the influencing factors of foreign direct investment (FDI). Secondly, the present situation and development of China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) are described and analyzed by using descriptive statistical method, and the existing problems in China's FDI are pointed out. Thirdly, combined with the characteristics of China's foreign direct investment, this paper clarifies the influencing factors of China's foreign direct investment, and combs it to provide the basis for the empirical analysis. Then in the empirical analysis part, based on the domestic and foreign scholars' related research, combined with the related theory of foreign investment, we first use the SPSS statistical analysis software to carry on the multivariate regression analysis to the time series data from 1996 to 2015 in our country. It is concluded that there is a positive correlation between the level of economic development and foreign direct investment, and the impact of consumer price index, RMB exchange rate and commodity export on foreign direct investment is not significant. Secondly, the panel data of 22 countries (regions) with more direct investment in China from 2004 to 2014 are analyzed by using Eviews statistical analysis software. It is concluded that China's foreign direct investment is affected by the consumer price index, foreign exchange reserve and total labor force of the host country. The ratio of government expenditure to GDP and the five factors that our country has to the existing investment stock of host country are significant, but the percentage of net inflow of GDP, to GDP in host country is not obvious. Finally, according to the current situation of China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) and the relevant conclusions of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations from the government level and the enterprise level, in order to further optimize the structure of China's OFDI. So that our enterprises can better "go out."
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】