人民币汇率错位及波动对中国机电行业的进口影响
发布时间：2018-09-12 13:05
【摘要】：近年来数据显示,中国机电行业在各行业进口总额中占有最大的比例,而行业进口量又受到汇率变动的影响,因此汇率微小的变动都将对机电行业造成巨大的影响,为了探究汇率错位及波动对机电行业进口的具体影响程度,利用2000-2016年相关经济变量的季度数据,通过建立Garch模型、协整方程并结合BEER实际汇率测算方法,得到了相关时间段人民币汇率错位和波动的季度数据,研究发现人民币汇率错位呈现出正负交替的现象,其数值在全球金融危机期间达到最大,从而表明不同的汇率错位程度对不同时期经济冲击的具体反应。此外,本文将汇率错位及波动加入进口方程式,拓展了传统的进口方程,并在此基础上研究了汇率错位及波动对机电行业进口量的影响,结果发现两者对机电行业进口量有着显著的负面影响。
[Abstract]:Data in recent years show that China's mechanical and electrical industry accounts for the largest proportion of the total imports of various industries, and the volume of industry imports is affected by exchange rate changes, so small changes in exchange rates will have a great impact on the machinery and electrical industry. In order to investigate the specific influence of exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation on the import of mechanical and electrical industry, using the quarterly data of relevant economic variables from 2000 to 2016, this paper establishes Garch model, cointegration equation and BEER real exchange rate calculation method. The quarterly data of RMB exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation in relevant time period are obtained. The study finds that RMB exchange rate misalignment shows a positive or negative alternation, and its value reaches its maximum during the global financial crisis. This shows that different exchange rate misalignment degree of economic shocks in different periods of specific response. In addition, the exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation are added to the import equation, and the traditional import equation is extended. On this basis, the influence of exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation on the import volume of mechanical and electrical industry is studied. The results show that both of them have a significant negative impact on the import volume of electromechanical industry.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的演进及其对东亚区域经济一体化的影响”(项目编号:13YJCGJW007)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F426.61;F752.61;F832.6
，
本文编号：2239088
[Abstract]:Data in recent years show that China's mechanical and electrical industry accounts for the largest proportion of the total imports of various industries, and the volume of industry imports is affected by exchange rate changes, so small changes in exchange rates will have a great impact on the machinery and electrical industry. In order to investigate the specific influence of exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation on the import of mechanical and electrical industry, using the quarterly data of relevant economic variables from 2000 to 2016, this paper establishes Garch model, cointegration equation and BEER real exchange rate calculation method. The quarterly data of RMB exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation in relevant time period are obtained. The study finds that RMB exchange rate misalignment shows a positive or negative alternation, and its value reaches its maximum during the global financial crisis. This shows that different exchange rate misalignment degree of economic shocks in different periods of specific response. In addition, the exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation are added to the import equation, and the traditional import equation is extended. On this basis, the influence of exchange rate dislocation and fluctuation on the import volume of mechanical and electrical industry is studied. The results show that both of them have a significant negative impact on the import volume of electromechanical industry.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的演进及其对东亚区域经济一体化的影响”(项目编号:13YJCGJW007)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F426.61;F752.61;F832.6
，
本文编号：2239088
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