杠杆率结构、水平和金融稳定--理论分析框架和中国经验

发布时间：2018-10-10 09:51

【摘要】：在对宏微观杠杆率内涵及其关系进行分析的基础上,本文分别通过MM定理的微观视角和增长方式的宏观视角,对中国杠杆率的结构和水平的经济学机理及其与金融稳定的关系进行了分析。微观杠杆率与宏观杠杆率的差异,主要反映了资本收益率变化,与经济周期阶段密切相关。微观分析表明,信息和交易成本、税收负担和预算软约束激励机制等差异,与不同企业杠杆率的差异密切相关;宏观分析表明,高储蓄支撑的投资导向增长模式,决定了中国总体上较高水平的杠杆率。本文提出,一方面应合理把握去杠杆和经济结构转型的进程,避免过快压缩信贷和投资可能引发的流动性风险和"债务-通缩"风险,另一方面也要避免杠杆率上升过快而引发的资产泡沫。政府宜减少直接的资源配置,创
[Abstract]:On the basis of analyzing the connotation of macro and micro leverage ratio and its relationship, this paper respectively through the microscopic perspective of MM theorem and the macro perspective of growth mode, This paper analyzes the economic mechanism of the structure and level of leverage ratio in China and its relationship with financial stability. The difference between micro leverage ratio and macro leverage ratio mainly reflects the change of return on capital and is closely related to the stage of economic cycle. Microscopic analysis shows that the differences in information and transaction costs, tax burden and incentive mechanism of soft budgetary constraints are closely related to the differences in leverage ratios of different enterprises. Determine China's overall high level of leverage. This paper suggests that on the one hand, the process of deleveraging and economic structural transformation should be reasonably grasped so as to avoid the liquidity risk and "debt-deflation" risk arising from the excessive compression of credit and investment. On the other hand, it is necessary to avoid the asset bubble caused by the excessive increase in leverage ratio. The government should reduce the direct allocation of resources and create
【作者单位】：中国人民银行研究局;中国人民银行营业管理部;
【基金】：中国金融论坛课题组承担的课题《通过供给侧结构性改革有效化解高杠杆风险——兼论杠杆率水平和结构的分析框架》阶段性成果
【分类号】：F832

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