国际金融危机对我国出口贸易传染的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-14 21:06

【摘要】：在经济全球化的趋势下,各国之间的经济往来越来越紧密,彼此之间的依赖性也越来越强。随着我国改革开放程度的不断加深,我国已经逐渐发展为出口导向型外贸经济,出口贸易的发展也越来越多地受到外部环境的影响和制约。08年席卷全球的美国次贷危机以及随后袭扰欧洲的债务危机对全球贸易环境的稳定造成十分严重的破坏,使得我国的出口贸易企业受到重创,我国的出口贸易出现断崖式下滑。那么,一国爆发的金融危机到底通过何种方式影响其贸易伙伴国的对外贸易?其中隐藏的传染机制是什么?而我国的出口贸易应采取哪些措施防范金融危机并提高抵御金融危机的能力?本文在梳理归纳有关金融危机传染理论和出口贸易相关概念的基础上试图对这些问题进行解答。本文以国际金融危机对我国出口贸易传染的实证研究为题,结合我国出口贸易的特点着重分析了次贷危机与欧债危机的爆发根源和传染机制,发现金融危机的爆发对我国出口贸易最直接的影响体现在:外贸需求的减少以及我国出口产品价格优势的丧失。因此,为验证了金融危机对我国出口贸易传染的收入效应和价格效应的存在性,本文通过构建向量自回归模型,利用参数估计分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析等检验方法对美国次贷危机以及欧洲债务危机对我国出口贸易的传染进行了实证研究。分析结果显示,由于我国加工贸易的竞争优势主要来自于低成本、低价格的制造品,出口贸易的稳定性很大程度上取决于国际市场的需求变化,而金融危机的爆发往往导致市场需求的下降;此外,金融危机的扩散会通过汇率机制使得我国出口商品在国际市场上的相对价格升高,进而造成对我国外贸需求的下降。当前正是我国经济转型的攻坚期,优化出口贸易结构,提高出口商品的国际竞争力对于保障我国经济平稳有序发展具有重要意义。为此,本文在第六章根据前文总结的我国出口贸易的特点以及外贸环境发生的新变化,提出关于加快对外贸易发展方式转变、优化贸易结构、调整贸易政策,促进进出口贸易平衡发展以及建立科学稳定有效的人民币汇率机制等方面的具体建议,为有关部门增强我国出口贸易抵御金融危机的能力提供借鉴与参考。
[Abstract]:In the trend of economic globalization, the closer the economic exchanges between countries, the more dependent each other. With the deepening of China's reform and opening up, China has gradually developed into an export-oriented foreign trade economy. The development of export trade is increasingly affected and restricted by the external environment. The subprime mortgage crisis of the United States, which swept the world in 2008, and the subsequent debt crisis, which hit Europe, have caused great damage to the stability of the global trading environment. The export trade enterprises of our country have been badly hit, and the export trade of our country has declined precipitously. So, in what way does a country's financial crisis affect the foreign trade of its trading partners? What are the underlying infectious mechanisms? What measures should be taken to prevent the financial crisis and improve the ability to resist the financial crisis? This paper tries to answer these questions on the basis of summing up the theory of financial crisis contagion and the related concepts of export trade. Based on the empirical study of the contagion of China's export trade caused by the international financial crisis, this paper focuses on the analysis of the root causes and contagion mechanism of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis in combination with the characteristics of China's export trade. It is found that the most direct impact of the outbreak of the financial crisis on China's export trade lies in the reduction of foreign trade demand and the loss of the price advantage of China's export products. Therefore, in order to verify the existence of the income and price effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion in China, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model, and analyzes the effects of the financial crisis on the export trade contagion by parameter estimation. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis are used to study the contagion of US sub-prime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis to China's export trade. The results show that because the competitive advantage of China's processing trade mainly comes from low-cost and low-cost manufactured goods, the stability of export trade depends to a large extent on the changes in demand in the international market. The outbreak of financial crisis often leads to the decline of market demand; in addition, the spread of financial crisis will increase the relative price of Chinese export commodities in the international market through the exchange rate mechanism, and then cause the decline of foreign trade demand of our country. At present, it is a critical period for China's economic transformation. It is of great significance to optimize the structure of export trade and improve the international competitiveness of export commodities in order to ensure the smooth and orderly development of China's economy. Therefore, in the sixth chapter, according to the characteristics of China's export trade and the new changes in the foreign trade environment, this paper puts forward some suggestions on speeding up the transformation of foreign trade development mode, optimizing the trade structure, and adjusting the trade policy. The concrete suggestions on promoting the balanced development of import and export trade and establishing a scientific stable and effective RMB exchange rate mechanism provide reference and reference for the relevant departments to strengthen the ability of China's export trade to resist the financial crisis.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62;F831.59

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