从“通道”到“同业”——中国影子银行体系的演进历程、潜在风险与发展方向

发布时间：2018-10-17 18:24

【摘要】：中国式影子银行以商业银行为主导,以规避监管进行信用扩张为主要目的。2008年以来中国式影子银行的演进充分体现了金融创新与金融监管之间的反复博弈。以2013年为界,中国影子银行主流模式发生了从“通道”到“同业”的转变。2013年之前,银行先后通过银信合作、银保合作、买入返售等途径投向信贷等非标资产。而从2014年起,同业创新加快,出现了通过同业、委外链条投资于标准化产品的新形式。影子银行的快速扩张导致系统性风险在金融领域积累,中小银行可能面临更大的风险冲击,未来的流动性风险与信用风险都应予以关注。2017年以来,随着一系列监管新规的出台,影子银行进入全面监管强化的新阶段,通过科目腾挪进行监管套利的原有模式难以维系。未来中国的影子银行体系将朝着规范化、证券化、高级化的方向继续演进,不良资产证券化、信贷资产转让、债转股等有望成为影子银行的新兴模式。
[Abstract]:Chinese shadow banking is dominated by commercial banks and its main purpose is to circumvent supervision and expand credit. The evolution of Chinese shadow banks since 2008 fully reflects the repeated game between financial innovation and financial supervision. In 2013, the mainstream model of shadow banking in China changed from "passageway" to "interbank". Prior to 2013, banks invested in non-standard assets such as credit through banking cooperation, bancassurance cooperation and buy-back sale. Since 2014, industry innovation has accelerated and a new form of investment in standardised products has emerged through the same industry. The rapid expansion of shadow banking has led to the accumulation of systemic risk in the financial field, and small and medium-sized banks may face a bigger risk impact. The future liquidity risk and credit risk should be paid attention to. Since 2017, with the introduction of a series of new regulations, Shadow banking has entered a new stage of comprehensive regulatory strengthening, and the original model of regulatory arbitrage through the transfer of subjects is difficult to maintain. In the future, China's shadow banking system will continue to evolve towards standardization, securitization and upgrading. Non-performing asset securitization, credit asset transfer and debt-to-equity conversion are expected to become the emerging models of shadow banking.
【作者单位】：中国政法大学商学院;中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;清华大学经管学院;
【分类号】：F832.3

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