“新常态”时期货币政策的调控模式选择

发布时间：2018-11-11 09:03

【摘要】：本文主要以1996年1月-2016年3月居民消费价格指数CPI、国内生产总值GDP、利率和货币供应量M2的同比增长率等数据为基础,通过构建混频数据向量自回归(MF-VAR)模型,对我国"新常态"时期"价格型"和"数量型"货币政策的调控模式进行了分析。主要得出了两个重要结论,一是我国经济运行中短期内存在的"托宾效应";二是"价格型"与"数量型"货币政策均能够刺激价格膨胀并促进经济增长,但前者不如后者效果显著。据此,向政府提出了"新常态"时期的政策建议,一方面应该深化利率市场化改革,加强统筹运用各类"价格型"货币政策工具,对实体经济中薄弱环节提供资金和渠道方面的支持。另一方面应更多地采用结构型的"数量型"货币政策,通过价格膨胀来促进经济增长,但要注意避免流动性泛滥而形成"流动性陷阱"。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of CPI, GDP, interest rate and money supply M2 growth rate from January 1996 to March 2016, this paper constructs a mixed data vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This paper analyzes the adjustment and control mode of "price type" and "quantity type" monetary policy in the period of "new normal" in China. Two important conclusions are drawn: one is the "Tobin effect" that exists in the short and medium term of China's economic operation; Second, both "price type" and "quantitative" monetary policy can stimulate price expansion and promote economic growth, but the former is less effective than the latter. On the one hand, we should deepen the reform of interest rate marketization and strengthen the overall use of all kinds of "price-type" monetary policy tools. To provide financial and channel support to weak links in the real economy. On the other hand, more structural "quantitative" monetary policies should be adopted to promote economic growth through price inflation, but attention should be paid to avoiding the flood of liquidity and forming a "liquidity trap".
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“引领经济发展新常态的市场基础、体制机制和发展方式研究”(15ZDC008);国家社科基金重点项目“我国经济发展新常态的形成机理、趋势性特征及经济政策取向研究”(15AZD001) 吉林大学研究生创新基金资助项目“我国货币政策的时变反应特征与调控模式选择”(2016131)
【分类号】：F822.0

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