资本账户开放与金融体系改革——基于新凯恩斯模型的分析

发布时间：2018-11-13 16:27

【摘要】："十三五"规划明确提出我国将逐步推进资本账户开放并进行金融体系改革。这两项改革如何搭配是一个迫切需要解决的问题。本文构造开放条件下新凯恩斯理论模型,探讨资本账户开放与金融体系改革两种政策的最优搭配。通过数值模拟与福利分析主要得到以下两条结论:(1)一国可先进行资本账户开放,再进行金融体系改革,这样可实现本国福利最优;由于在资本账户开放速度较快的情况下,金融体系改革速度对福利的影响较小,如果考虑到多项改革的存在,本国只要把握资本账户开放速度不宜太慢即可。(2)在资本账户开放与金融体系改革过程中进行汇率制度改革,提高汇率弹性会有助于本国福利的提高。本文对我国资本账户开放与金融体系改革具有重要的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The 13th Five-Year Plan clearly states that China will gradually open its capital account and reform its financial system. How to match the two reforms is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper constructs a new Keynesian theory model under the condition of opening to the outside world and probes into the optimal collocation of the two policies: capital account opening and financial system reform. Through numerical simulation and welfare analysis, the following two conclusions are obtained: (1) A country can open its capital account first, then reform its financial system, so that it can realize the optimal welfare of its own country; Since the pace of reform of the financial system has less impact on welfare at a faster rate of opening the capital account, if the existence of a number of reforms is taken into account, In the process of capital account opening and the reform of the financial system, the reform of exchange rate regime will be helpful to the improvement of the welfare of our country. (2) in the process of the reform of the capital account and the reform of the financial system, the exchange rate flexibility will help to improve the welfare of our country. This paper is of great significance to the opening of capital account and the reform of financial system.
【作者单位】：天津城建大学;南开大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F832

【参考文献】