超预期通胀与货币政策边界——基于微观厂商模型和经验证据

发布时间：2018-11-15 13:18

【摘要】：2012年以来,中国告别近20年11%左右的高速增长,开始沿着新的平衡增长路径,进入中速增长的"新常态",依靠货币政策短期刺激经济增长的空间已经消失。为了解释这一经济现实,文章从理论和经验两方面系统考察货币政策影响产出的作用机制。首先建立数理模型。通过观察微观厂商对于超预期通货膨胀的理性反应,从微观角度提供理论证据,证明货币政策通过制造超预期通胀对真实产出产生影响,解释为何这种影响具有条件依存性和不可持续性,其边界处在潜在产出和自然失业率水平。其次,建立附加预期的菲利普斯曲线回归方程。通过分段检验中国改革开放以来超预期通货膨胀与实际产出之间的相关关系,分析中国货币政策在各个时期的政策效果,为检验货币政策边界的存在性、评价货币政策实施效果和预测货币政策未来走向提供经验证据。
[Abstract]:Since 2012, after nearly 20 years of rapid growth of about 11 percent, China has begun to follow a new balanced growth path to enter the "new normal" of moderate growth, and the space for short-term economic growth by monetary policy has disappeared. In order to explain this economic reality, this paper systematically studies the mechanism of monetary policy influencing output from both theoretical and empirical aspects. First, the mathematical model is established. By observing the rational response of micro-firms to super-expected inflation and providing theoretical evidence from a micro-perspective, it is proved that monetary policy has an impact on real output by creating super-expected inflation. It explains why this effect is conditional dependent and unsustainable, and its boundary is at the level of potential output and natural unemployment. Secondly, the Phillips curve regression equation with additional expectation is established. This paper analyzes the effect of China's monetary policy in each period by examining the correlation between the expected inflation and the actual output since the reform and opening up in China, in order to test the existence of the monetary policy boundary. To evaluate the effect of monetary policy implementation and forecast the future trend of monetary policy provide empirical evidence.
【作者单位】：沈阳师范大学教育经济与管理研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“基于一般均衡分析的产业结构优化动力机制研究”(15BJL041) 辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地专项项目“教育供给与教育收益率关系研究”(ZJ2014036) 辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目“基于一般均衡分析的产业转型新路径”(L14AJL011) 沈阳师范大学辽宁省教育科学“十三五”规划立项项目“新技术革命的人力资本动因和教育发展战略研究”(JG16E13186)
【分类号】：F822.0;F822.5

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