基于国际视角的美联储缩表影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-28 10:15
【摘要】：金融危机过后,美联储三轮QE为全球市场注入了巨额流动性,QE的退出及美联储加息和缩表预期也必然会对市场造成重要影响。本文首先对美联储缩表背景、原因、方式、规模进行论述,随后从短期、宏观、微观角度对其影响进行深入分析,最后研究了美联储缩表对中国的影响。研究发现,美联储预期缩表规模为2017-2022年达到GDP的16%,2022年以后目标为GDP的6%。由于对国内经济形势和特朗普政府政策执行力度的担忧,缩表短期不会对市场造成太大影响,但长期影响不容忽视。缩表会显著影响国债长端收益,同时市场流动性会大幅减少,对股市也有较大影响,美元会因此更加坚挺,由此造成新兴市场资本流失。
[Abstract]:In the wake of the financial crisis, the Fed's three rounds of QE injected huge amounts of liquidity into global markets, and the exit of the QE and the Fed's expectations of higher interest rates and shrinking statements are bound to have a significant impact on markets. This paper first discusses the background, reasons, methods and scale of the Fed's contraction table, then analyzes its impact from the short-term, macro and micro perspectives, and finally studies the impact of the Fed's contraction table on China. The study found that the Fed expects the scale of the contraction to reach 16% of GDP in 2017-2022 and the target of 6% of GDP after 2022. Because of concerns about the domestic economic situation and the extent to which the Trump administration's policies are being implemented, the short-term impact of the contraction will not be too big for the market, but the long-term impact should not be overlooked. A contraction would have a significant impact on long-end Treasury yields, as well as a sharp drop in market liquidity and a greater impact on equities, making the dollar stronger, resulting in capital losses in emerging markets.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;中国兵器装备集团公司;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“新形势下防范金融风险研究”(项目编号:08BJY155);国家社会科学基金项目“全面提高开放型经济水平研究”(项目编号:13AZD006)
【分类号】：F827.12
，
本文编号：2362550
[Abstract]:In the wake of the financial crisis, the Fed's three rounds of QE injected huge amounts of liquidity into global markets, and the exit of the QE and the Fed's expectations of higher interest rates and shrinking statements are bound to have a significant impact on markets. This paper first discusses the background, reasons, methods and scale of the Fed's contraction table, then analyzes its impact from the short-term, macro and micro perspectives, and finally studies the impact of the Fed's contraction table on China. The study found that the Fed expects the scale of the contraction to reach 16% of GDP in 2017-2022 and the target of 6% of GDP after 2022. Because of concerns about the domestic economic situation and the extent to which the Trump administration's policies are being implemented, the short-term impact of the contraction will not be too big for the market, but the long-term impact should not be overlooked. A contraction would have a significant impact on long-end Treasury yields, as well as a sharp drop in market liquidity and a greater impact on equities, making the dollar stronger, resulting in capital losses in emerging markets.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;中国兵器装备集团公司;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“新形势下防范金融风险研究”(项目编号:08BJY155);国家社会科学基金项目“全面提高开放型经济水平研究”(项目编号:13AZD006)
【分类号】：F827.12
，
本文编号：2362550
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